***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.10.2012.-21.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 9999.0 9.0 9.4 94.0 63.4 44.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 2.5 9.9 9.4 104.0 66.3 47.1 2.5 5.3 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 3.2 10.8 9.0 95.0 64.1 46.3 3.3 6.6 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 2.8 12.2 11.4 100.7 65.5 45.1 3.1 6.7 12.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 3.2 10.6 11.1 99.6 64.8 45.3 3.4 6.6 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 2.6 8.8 11.9 94.1 62.9 45.9 2.6 5.4 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 2.5 9.4 9.8 105.6 66.8 47.7 2.4 5.0 9.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 5.1 14.1 11.8 100.6 64.7 46.7 5.3 9.3 14.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 3.8 11.2 10.8 98.3 64.3 45.9 4.2 7.4 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 4.7 13.7 11.6 100.0 64.5 46.9 4.8 8.7 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 3.6 11.7 10.6 101.5 65.1 44.4 3.6 7.2 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 3.1 9.6 10.0 97.1 63.7 44.6 3.2 6.2 10.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 2.9 9.6 10.7 94.2 62.8 44.7 2.9 6.1 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 16.1 17.6 10.6 89.3 62.4 46.6 6.5 12.0 19.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 2.2 11.3 11.5 105.2 67.5 45.3 2.2 5.4 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 3.2 9.5 10.3 97.1 63.9 43.8 3.4 6.3 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 2.2 8.7 9.5 104.4 66.2 45.4 2.1 4.6 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 4.7 12.6 12.3 96.5 63.8 48.3 4.4 8.2 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 3.7 13.8 9.0 98.8 64.9 45.9 3.8 7.9 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 4.7 14.1 15.4 99.9 65.1 48.5 4.5 8.7 14.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 3.0 10.2 10.0 98.4 64.7 45.6 3.2 6.2 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 2.7 9.8 9.5 100.7 65.6 44.9 2.5 5.4 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 4.2 11.8 8.7 91.0 62.4 44.8 4.0 7.8 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 4.7 13.5 10.3 92.5 62.8 47.3 4.1 8.5 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 3.3 10.6 10.8 95.7 63.8 45.7 3.3 6.7 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 2.7 10.1 11.2 99.5 65.1 45.5 2.7 5.8 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 3.1 10.0 10.2 93.9 63.3 45.3 3.2 6.3 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 2.8 10.8 11.0 101.0 65.8 44.5 3.1 6.3 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 7.1 17.9 13.1 93.9 63.3 48.3 6.4 11.9 19.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 3.1 11.7 9.3 101.1 65.8 47.2 3.2 6.6 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------