***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.09.2012.-21.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 43.0 34.6 83.0 52.9 46.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 39.1 37.9 36.9 91.1 56.5 49.7 22.2 33.0 46.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 47.2 41.3 33.9 80.9 50.4 45.0 28.5 40.9 55.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 42.0 55.5 37.7 78.7 46.2 41.0 43.0 59.2 78.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 29.4 37.9 35.6 75.6 44.1 40.0 30.1 42.4 56.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 30.2 35.7 39.1 74.8 39.9 37.8 30.4 43.9 59.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 37.1 37.8 38.2 95.7 58.6 51.7 19.4 30.9 45.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 70.3 54.8 37.4 73.0 39.2 37.1 50.1 63.3 77.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 48.1 39.9 37.1 79.6 47.2 42.8 30.2 42.0 55.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 58.1 46.4 38.9 76.1 42.7 39.7 39.8 51.7 65.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 30.8 37.7 32.3 73.5 42.2 38.8 31.6 43.0 55.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 30.3 35.2 30.7 70.9 39.2 36.8 31.1 42.1 54.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 31.0 36.1 33.4 71.0 38.7 36.8 32.5 44.1 57.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 71.1 61.5 42.9 82.7 48.8 43.9 47.3 62.8 80.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 22.6 37.3 37.5 82.9 49.9 42.5 23.1 37.6 55.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 25.6 31.5 32.0 71.1 39.4 36.8 27.7 38.3 50.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 32.5 31.7 38.3 95.3 58.0 50.4 17.0 26.5 37.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 59.8 46.2 44.6 78.4 43.4 40.8 37.6 51.8 68.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 46.2 42.9 35.9 87.5 54.6 48.1 26.4 39.1 54.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 63.9 50.7 55.5 80.3 42.8 40.2 43.3 56.8 71.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 48.0 41.9 34.9 80.9 49.8 44.6 29.8 42.2 56.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 38.0 37.5 39.2 93.9 57.1 50.0 21.2 32.0 45.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 48.2 43.6 35.8 83.7 52.1 46.1 30.0 41.9 55.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 58.8 46.5 39.4 78.7 46.0 42.2 35.3 50.5 68.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 49.2 39.0 38.4 79.4 48.7 43.4 25.9 40.3 58.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 30.5 34.7 33.8 72.4 38.5 37.0 31.1 43.0 56.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 42.9 37.2 38.1 83.0 51.6 45.7 22.8 35.8 51.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 25.8 36.3 35.6 77.0 45.0 39.6 27.8 40.1 54.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 83.8 67.4 49.5 80.0 43.9 41.1 56.0 74.3 94.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 39.2 37.8 36.3 89.0 55.6 49.3 22.5 33.8 46.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------