***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.09.2018.-30.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 83 17 0 100 8.7 8.6 9.9 -2.0 19.5 21.7 9.5 10.4 11.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 87 13 0 100 8.1 8.0 9.5 -2.0 17.9 20.2 9.3 10.4 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 84 16 0 100 10.6 10.6 10.1 -1.9 19.3 21.3 11.5 12.6 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 96 4 0 100 5.6 5.1 7.1 -2.5 12.5 14.9 7.0 8.2 9.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 92 8 0 100 7.0 6.6 8.0 -2.4 14.1 16.7 8.2 9.3 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 87 13 0 100 6.8 6.2 5.4 -2.4 12.6 17.1 7.6 8.6 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 88 12 0 100 8.7 8.8 9.7 -1.9 19.7 21.6 9.7 10.6 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 94 6 0 100 2.4 1.5 5.3 -2.6 9.1 12.2 3.4 4.3 5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 87 13 0 100 8.5 8.4 8.3 -1.9 18.0 20.4 9.4 10.3 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 91 9 0 100 8.5 8.1 6.3 -2.4 12.9 15.4 9.3 10.1 10.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 88 12 0 100 7.9 7.4 7.6 -2.2 14.1 16.8 8.8 9.7 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 93 7 0 100 6.8 6.2 6.3 -2.5 11.3 14.2 7.8 8.7 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 7.8 7.4 6.8 -2.0 17.5 21.3 8.4 9.3 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 84 16 0 100 9.3 9.2 8.0 -1.8 18.7 20.7 10.0 10.8 11.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 9.1 9.0 9.7 -1.4 23.5 25.9 9.6 10.5 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 86 14 0 100 8.7 8.3 7.0 -2.3 14.3 17.4 9.6 10.5 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 87 13 0 100 8.6 8.5 9.2 -2.0 18.0 20.1 9.6 10.5 11.4 30 Palic 37000G16 94 6 0 100 7.3 6.8 5.6 -2.6 10.9 13.2 8.2 9.1 9.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 85 15 0 100 8.6 8.4 9.6 -1.9 18.4 20.6 9.5 10.4 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 94 6 0 100 3.9 2.9 3.5 -3.2 6.1 9.1 4.7 5.3 6.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 83 17 0 100 8.1 8.0 9.4 -1.9 19.0 21.2 9.0 10.0 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 84 16 0 100 7.8 7.8 9.6 -1.8 19.0 20.9 8.7 9.6 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 82 18 0 100 8.1 7.9 9.7 -1.8 19.1 21.1 8.9 9.9 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 87 13 0 100 8.4 8.3 7.9 -2.0 16.9 19.0 9.2 10.0 10.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 89 11 0 100 8.2 7.9 9.0 -2.4 15.3 18.2 9.4 10.5 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 80 20 0 100 7.9 7.4 6.0 -2.3 14.1 18.8 8.6 9.4 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 86 14 0 100 8.2 8.0 9.4 -2.2 17.9 20.4 9.4 10.8 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 82 18 0 100 7.0 6.7 7.8 -2.1 17.0 19.4 7.9 8.9 9.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 93 7 0 100 6.0 5.0 4.8 -2.7 9.3 11.8 7.1 8.1 9.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 84 16 0 100 8.7 8.6 9.9 -2.0 18.8 21.0 9.7 10.7 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------