***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.10.2018.-07.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 7.8 8.6 10.0 -0.7 39.7 43.9 8.1 9.3 10.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 7.8 8.5 9.5 -0.8 36.6 41.6 8.2 9.5 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 10.3 10.8 9.9 -0.9 35.7 41.2 10.6 11.6 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 7.5 5.8 7.4 -0.9 34.9 41.7 5.7 6.9 8.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 6.9 7.4 8.0 -0.9 35.1 41.7 7.3 8.6 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 6.1 6.4 5.8 -0.9 33.5 40.8 6.3 7.7 8.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 8.1 8.9 9.7 -0.7 39.0 43.3 8.5 9.6 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 2.4 2.4 5.6 -1.2 28.5 37.1 2.7 3.8 4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 8.5 8.7 8.0 -1.0 32.5 39.4 8.7 9.8 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 7.8 7.8 6.4 -1.2 29.0 37.2 8.1 9.2 10.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 7.1 7.3 7.4 -1.0 31.6 39.2 7.4 8.7 9.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 6.1 6.3 6.5 -1.1 30.9 38.7 6.4 7.6 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 6.6 6.9 6.5 -1.0 33.6 39.9 6.9 8.2 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 8.4 8.6 7.6 -1.1 30.6 37.8 8.7 9.7 10.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 8.2 8.9 9.0 -0.6 39.1 44.0 8.5 9.6 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 8.2 8.5 6.9 -0.9 34.1 40.7 8.4 9.6 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 8.3 8.9 9.3 -0.8 37.0 41.7 8.6 9.6 10.6 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 6.4 6.4 5.6 -1.3 28.2 36.5 6.8 8.0 9.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 8.1 8.6 9.5 -0.9 35.1 40.7 8.4 9.5 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 2.8 2.9 4.1 -1.3 28.8 37.9 3.2 4.5 5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 7.8 8.2 9.2 -0.9 35.3 41.1 8.0 9.2 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 7.3 7.7 9.3 -1.0 33.7 39.5 7.7 8.7 9.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 7.6 8.0 9.4 -1.0 33.2 39.6 8.0 9.1 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 7.7 7.9 7.6 -1.1 31.1 38.0 8.0 9.0 9.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 8.2 8.9 9.1 -0.7 39.1 43.9 8.5 9.8 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 6.8 7.3 6.1 -1.0 33.9 40.5 7.2 8.4 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 8.2 9.3 9.7 -0.6 41.1 44.9 8.6 10.1 11.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 6.4 6.9 7.7 -0.8 36.1 42.2 6.6 7.9 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 6.1 6.1 4.9 -1.4 26.6 36.1 6.5 7.5 8.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 8.3 9.0 9.8 -0.8 36.9 42.0 8.7 9.9 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------