***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.10.2018.-21.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 6.5 6.1 8.8 0.1 51.8 51.5 4.8 6.0 7.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 6.6 6.1 8.3 0.1 50.7 50.9 4.8 6.1 7.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 8.8 8.4 8.7 0.1 51.0 51.1 7.2 8.3 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 3.9 3.5 5.9 0.1 51.2 51.6 2.4 3.5 4.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 5.9 5.3 6.2 0.0 49.9 50.3 4.0 5.3 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 5.2 4.7 4.5 0.0 50.2 51.0 3.3 4.7 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 6.5 6.1 8.4 0.1 51.0 51.0 4.9 6.0 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 1.6 1.0 4.4 -0.1 48.9 49.6 -0.4 1.1 2.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 6.9 6.3 6.5 0.0 49.4 49.8 5.1 6.4 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 6.4 5.9 5.1 -0.1 48.5 49.2 4.7 6.0 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 6.0 5.5 5.5 0.0 49.4 49.9 4.3 5.5 6.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 5.1 4.6 4.9 0.0 49.6 50.1 3.3 4.6 5.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 5.5 4.9 4.6 -0.1 48.8 49.6 3.7 5.0 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 6.9 6.3 6.4 -0.2 47.3 48.2 5.4 6.5 7.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 6.5 6.2 6.9 0.2 52.9 53.1 4.9 6.0 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 6.9 6.4 5.1 0.0 49.6 50.3 5.2 6.4 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 6.5 6.0 8.1 0.0 50.1 50.5 4.9 6.0 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 5.4 4.8 4.4 -0.1 48.2 49.1 3.7 4.9 6.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 6.6 6.2 8.3 0.0 50.6 50.9 5.0 6.1 7.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 2.0 1.4 3.0 -0.1 48.1 49.0 0.2 1.6 2.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 6.5 6.0 7.9 0.0 50.3 50.5 4.7 6.0 7.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 5.8 5.4 8.0 0.0 50.0 50.3 4.2 5.4 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 6.4 6.0 8.2 0.0 50.0 50.4 4.8 6.0 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 6.0 5.5 6.1 -0.1 48.4 49.3 4.5 5.6 6.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 6.9 6.5 7.5 0.1 51.1 51.1 5.1 6.4 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 5.7 5.3 4.5 0.0 50.5 51.2 4.1 5.3 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 7.1 6.6 8.2 0.1 51.3 51.2 5.0 6.5 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 5.0 4.7 6.0 0.1 51.6 52.0 3.3 4.5 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 4.7 4.1 4.0 -0.1 47.9 48.9 3.0 4.2 5.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 6.9 6.5 8.6 0.1 51.4 51.4 5.1 6.4 7.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------