***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.09.2018.-30.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 96 4 0 100 19.0 17.2 17.2 -4.4 6.8 9.5 20.7 22.1 23.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 97 3 0 100 19.5 17.9 17.1 -4.5 7.2 9.8 21.1 22.5 23.7 30 Becej 27400G00 96 4 0 100 19.4 17.5 17.0 -4.7 6.4 9.1 21.1 22.6 24.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 96 4 0 100 12.1 10.0 13.9 -4.8 6.0 8.7 13.9 15.5 16.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 100 0 0 100 19.4 16.4 14.6 -5.5 3.3 5.5 21.4 22.9 24.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 96 4 0 100 18.9 16.3 13.0 -5.3 4.2 7.3 20.6 22.1 23.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 96 4 0 100 19.3 17.9 17.1 -4.4 7.6 10.2 20.8 22.1 23.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 99 1 0 100 8.6 5.0 12.0 -6.2 1.8 4.3 10.4 11.9 13.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 100 0 0 100 19.1 16.1 15.4 -5.5 3.3 5.5 21.0 22.6 24.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 99 1 0 100 18.6 15.1 13.2 -6.0 2.6 4.9 20.6 22.2 23.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 99 1 0 100 19.1 16.0 14.8 -5.6 3.1 5.5 21.1 22.7 24.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 99 1 0 100 18.5 14.9 13.4 -5.9 2.3 4.9 20.5 22.0 23.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 98 2 0 100 19.5 16.5 14.8 -5.5 3.3 5.9 21.4 22.9 24.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 99 1 0 100 19.0 16.1 15.1 -5.3 3.8 6.2 21.0 22.6 24.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 94 6 0 100 19.9 18.7 17.1 -4.0 8.9 11.7 21.4 22.7 24.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 98 2 0 100 20.2 17.3 14.7 -5.4 3.6 6.2 22.0 23.5 24.9 30 Nis 06700G01 97 3 0 100 19.0 17.4 16.5 -4.6 6.4 8.9 20.5 21.8 23.0 30 Palic 37000G16 100 0 0 100 18.0 14.3 12.1 -6.3 2.1 4.4 20.0 21.5 23.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 97 3 0 100 19.1 17.4 17.0 -4.5 6.8 9.6 20.8 22.2 23.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 99 1 0 100 14.1 9.3 9.8 -6.7 1.0 3.3 16.0 17.6 19.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 100 0 0 100 19.2 16.6 16.3 -5.3 3.9 6.2 21.1 22.6 24.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 100 0 0 100 19.3 17.3 16.4 -4.8 5.2 7.5 21.0 22.4 23.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 94 6 0 100 19.3 17.4 17.0 -4.5 6.9 9.8 20.9 22.4 23.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 99 1 0 100 18.9 15.9 14.9 -5.5 3.5 6.0 20.8 22.3 23.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 99 1 0 100 19.1 17.1 15.7 -4.9 5.0 7.2 20.8 22.1 23.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 98 2 0 100 19.4 15.9 13.2 -5.6 2.3 5.5 21.2 22.7 24.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 97 3 0 100 19.2 17.3 16.5 -4.6 5.9 8.5 20.8 22.1 23.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 96 4 0 100 19.5 17.5 15.1 -4.7 6.3 9.1 21.3 22.9 24.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 100 0 0 100 13.3 8.9 11.2 -6.5 1.5 3.7 15.3 16.9 18.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 96 4 0 100 19.2 17.7 17.2 -4.4 7.4 10.2 20.8 22.2 23.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------