***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.10.2018.-07.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 19.5 20.3 18.8 -1.1 37.0 42.1 20.0 21.2 22.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 20.1 20.7 18.7 -1.2 36.0 41.3 20.5 21.5 22.5 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 20.0 20.7 18.9 -1.1 37.0 42.2 20.4 21.5 22.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 12.1 13.3 16.4 -0.8 39.5 43.8 12.7 14.3 15.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 19.7 20.4 17.2 -1.2 35.2 41.1 20.3 21.5 22.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 18.9 20.0 15.9 -0.8 40.5 45.7 19.3 20.7 21.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 19.7 20.3 18.7 -1.1 36.5 41.8 20.1 21.1 22.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 9.6 10.2 15.5 -1.3 34.5 41.1 10.1 11.3 12.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 19.7 20.4 17.7 -1.3 34.6 40.8 20.3 21.5 22.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 19.4 20.1 16.4 -1.3 35.1 41.3 19.9 21.2 22.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 19.9 20.6 17.4 -1.2 35.8 41.6 20.4 21.6 22.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 19.2 19.9 16.5 -1.3 35.2 41.5 19.7 21.0 22.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 20.4 21.0 16.9 -1.3 35.4 41.6 20.8 22.0 23.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 20.5 21.0 17.4 -1.4 34.1 40.1 20.9 22.1 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 19.3 20.5 18.3 -0.5 43.6 46.2 19.6 20.9 22.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 20.7 21.4 17.1 -1.2 36.6 42.3 21.1 22.4 23.6 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 19.4 19.9 18.2 -1.3 34.7 40.2 19.8 20.8 21.7 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 19.1 19.7 15.7 -1.4 34.5 41.0 19.6 20.8 22.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 19.9 20.4 18.8 -1.2 35.9 41.2 20.2 21.3 22.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 15.8 16.2 13.6 -1.6 31.9 39.4 16.3 17.5 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 19.8 20.3 18.3 -1.3 34.1 40.3 20.3 21.4 22.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 20.1 20.5 18.1 -1.5 32.3 38.4 20.5 21.6 22.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 20.2 20.8 18.8 -1.1 36.5 41.6 20.6 21.6 22.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 20.1 20.7 17.5 -1.3 35.7 41.6 20.5 21.7 22.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 19.2 19.8 17.3 -1.3 34.7 40.5 19.7 20.9 22.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 20.0 20.7 16.3 -1.0 37.8 43.2 20.4 21.6 22.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 19.7 20.3 18.0 -1.2 35.8 41.3 20.1 21.3 22.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 19.1 20.3 17.2 -0.7 41.0 44.7 19.6 21.1 22.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 15.1 15.5 14.9 -1.6 32.9 39.9 15.5 16.7 17.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 19.8 20.4 18.8 -1.1 36.5 41.7 20.2 21.2 22.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------