***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.10.2018.-14.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 20.0 18.8 18.1 -0.7 42.4 44.5 18.1 19.4 20.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 17.9 19.0 18.0 -0.7 42.2 43.9 18.2 19.6 20.9 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 18.1 19.1 18.3 -0.7 41.6 43.6 18.4 19.7 21.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 11.0 11.9 15.8 -0.9 39.8 42.6 11.3 12.7 14.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 18.1 18.8 16.3 -1.1 37.6 40.6 18.4 19.8 21.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 17.8 18.7 15.0 -0.9 40.4 43.0 18.1 19.4 20.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 17.6 18.7 18.1 -0.6 43.1 44.7 17.9 19.2 20.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 8.9 9.5 15.1 -1.1 37.7 40.9 9.2 10.3 11.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 18.2 18.7 16.7 -1.2 37.3 40.2 18.4 19.7 21.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 17.8 18.5 15.8 -1.2 37.6 40.6 18.1 19.4 20.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 18.0 18.9 16.3 -1.1 37.9 41.1 18.5 19.8 21.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 17.7 18.5 16.0 -1.1 38.2 41.4 18.1 19.4 20.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 18.7 19.4 15.7 -1.0 39.1 42.2 18.9 20.2 21.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 18.3 19.2 16.7 -1.0 39.2 41.7 18.7 20.1 21.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 17.6 18.6 16.5 -0.7 41.9 44.2 17.9 19.1 20.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 18.9 19.8 16.1 -1.0 39.1 42.2 19.3 20.6 21.8 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 17.3 18.4 17.7 -0.7 41.9 43.6 17.7 19.0 20.3 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 17.1 17.7 15.5 -1.1 38.5 41.3 17.3 18.6 19.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 17.8 18.8 18.1 -0.7 41.7 43.6 18.1 19.5 20.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 14.5 15.0 13.4 -1.1 38.2 41.4 14.6 15.9 17.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 18.1 18.8 17.4 -1.0 38.6 41.3 18.3 19.7 20.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 18.0 19.0 17.6 -0.8 40.5 42.5 18.4 19.7 21.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 18.3 19.2 18.2 -0.8 41.5 43.4 18.6 19.8 21.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 18.1 18.9 16.8 -1.0 39.4 41.9 18.4 19.8 21.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 17.8 18.5 16.3 -0.9 39.9 42.7 18.0 19.1 20.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 20.5 19.5 15.9 -0.7 42.4 45.0 18.9 20.0 21.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 20.0 18.9 17.4 -0.7 42.2 44.5 18.2 19.5 20.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 17.5 18.5 16.1 -0.9 40.0 42.8 17.9 19.3 20.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 13.3 14.0 14.8 -1.1 38.1 41.1 13.5 14.9 16.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 17.7 18.8 18.1 -0.7 42.6 44.4 18.0 19.3 20.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------