***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.09.2018.-21.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 72 28 0 100 18.7 18.8 17.8 -1.5 25.0 29.6 19.2 19.9 20.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 70 30 0 100 19.1 19.1 17.7 -1.6 24.6 29.1 19.5 20.1 20.8 30 Becej 27400G00 73 27 0 100 19.1 19.1 17.9 -1.6 23.9 28.8 19.5 20.3 21.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 12.0 11.8 15.2 -1.6 24.1 29.2 12.4 13.2 14.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 72 28 0 100 19.2 18.9 15.9 -2.0 18.8 24.4 19.7 20.4 21.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 70 30 0 100 18.4 18.3 14.5 -1.8 21.9 28.1 18.9 19.8 20.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 18.8 18.8 17.7 -1.5 25.5 29.9 19.1 19.8 20.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 79 21 0 100 9.1 8.7 14.2 -2.3 15.4 22.1 9.7 10.5 11.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 76 24 0 100 19.1 18.8 16.4 -2.1 18.5 23.9 19.6 20.4 21.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 78 22 0 100 18.6 18.3 15.1 -2.2 16.9 23.0 19.2 20.0 20.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 19.1 18.7 15.9 -2.1 18.3 24.3 19.6 20.4 21.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 76 24 0 100 18.5 18.1 15.2 -2.1 16.8 23.4 19.1 19.9 20.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 19.4 19.1 15.5 -2.1 18.4 24.7 19.9 20.8 21.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 76 24 0 100 19.3 19.0 16.3 -2.0 18.4 24.6 19.8 20.6 21.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 18.9 18.9 16.9 -1.2 29.2 33.7 19.1 19.8 20.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 19.9 19.7 15.7 -1.9 19.9 26.1 20.4 21.2 22.0 30 Nis 06700G01 71 29 0 100 18.4 18.4 17.3 -1.7 23.4 28.0 18.8 19.5 20.1 30 Palic 37000G16 79 21 0 100 18.1 17.7 14.5 -2.3 16.1 22.5 18.6 19.4 20.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 71 29 0 100 18.9 18.9 17.8 -1.6 24.1 28.8 19.3 20.0 20.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 80 20 0 100 14.8 14.2 12.3 -2.5 12.9 20.3 15.4 16.2 17.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 75 25 0 100 19.0 18.8 17.2 -2.0 19.6 24.8 19.5 20.3 21.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 73 27 0 100 19.0 18.9 17.2 -1.8 20.9 26.0 19.5 20.2 20.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 73 27 0 100 19.1 19.2 17.8 -1.6 24.0 28.9 19.6 20.3 20.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 76 24 0 100 19.0 18.8 16.3 -2.0 19.0 24.9 19.6 20.4 21.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 72 28 0 100 18.7 18.6 16.2 -1.8 21.5 26.5 19.1 19.7 20.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 19.1 18.8 15.0 -1.9 19.4 26.4 19.6 20.4 21.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 74 26 0 100 18.9 18.9 17.0 -1.6 23.7 28.4 19.3 20.0 20.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 18.8 18.7 15.9 -1.6 25.1 30.4 19.1 20.0 20.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 79 21 0 100 14.0 13.5 13.7 -2.4 14.4 21.2 14.6 15.4 16.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 70 30 0 100 18.8 18.9 17.8 -1.5 25.2 29.8 19.2 19.9 20.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------