***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.09.2018.-30.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 16.5 24.6 19.1 184.6 83.3 70.9 3.3 7.1 12.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 12.0 16.0 17.8 173.4 81.6 68.1 3.4 6.2 9.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 16.3 25.0 19.8 186.3 83.6 70.5 3.6 7.5 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 26.3 48.4 25.2 218.8 87.5 71.5 4.6 10.5 19.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 23 77 100 19.1 35.7 24.2 233.6 89.1 75.4 3.9 8.2 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 17 83 100 20.5 38.7 26.6 246.7 90.8 75.3 4.4 8.9 15.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 12.6 15.8 16.9 160.0 79.3 65.6 2.8 5.7 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 25.4 47.7 32.1 246.3 90.9 77.2 6.7 12.3 20.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 17.4 30.8 24.1 222.7 88.2 75.5 3.9 7.8 13.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 22.1 39.9 29.9 232.9 89.6 77.1 5.4 10.2 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 18.3 38.7 28.0 273.8 92.3 76.9 4.5 8.6 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 16.9 35.5 29.3 266.3 92.1 77.2 3.9 7.7 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 19 81 100 18.0 35.7 28.8 265.6 92.1 76.9 4.5 8.4 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 21.4 33.0 25.6 186.4 84.0 73.7 5.0 10.1 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 18.7 35.5 25.2 237.6 88.3 69.0 3.6 8.1 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 20 80 100 16.0 30.9 27.0 257.3 91.0 75.8 3.7 7.2 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 9.6 11.4 16.1 149.4 77.3 63.2 2.8 5.1 8.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 22.6 38.9 29.1 206.1 87.0 76.8 4.3 9.5 17.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 12.6 18.0 18.7 179.7 82.8 69.6 2.9 5.9 10.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 24.9 41.9 32.0 213.9 88.3 77.8 6.0 11.4 19.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 17.8 30.3 21.8 203.8 85.9 72.9 3.8 8.1 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 11.1 13.5 17.1 155.2 78.3 64.3 3.0 5.6 9.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 14.4 20.4 19.8 178.3 82.6 70.7 3.6 7.0 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 20.2 33.3 24.9 199.4 85.7 74.7 4.6 9.2 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 19.4 30.9 22.2 196.8 84.8 72.4 4.5 9.2 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 17.2 34.4 28.7 271.0 91.9 76.0 4.1 7.9 13.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 19.7 29.4 20.3 184.4 83.2 71.2 4.6 9.2 16.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 23 77 100 18.6 38.5 27.1 253.0 90.4 72.8 3.4 7.5 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 33.7 54.9 29.2 199.0 86.2 76.6 7.5 15.2 26.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 12.2 16.9 17.9 174.9 81.9 68.9 2.8 5.5 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------