***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.10.2018.-07.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 8.5 9.7 18.2 136.9 74.6 58.9 2.1 4.2 7.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 11.4 13.7 16.8 145.2 76.5 62.3 2.1 4.8 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 11.4 13.8 18.2 142.6 75.9 60.2 3.3 6.2 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 14.8 23.8 18.5 137.3 74.7 56.8 6.0 11.3 18.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 9.8 16.5 17.6 139.7 75.3 56.6 3.9 7.3 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 8.7 14.1 18.5 126.7 71.8 56.1 2.7 6.0 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 12.6 15.0 16.9 145.6 76.6 61.3 2.2 5.2 9.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 12.9 22.8 20.9 148.1 77.2 56.5 5.0 9.6 16.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 8.5 14.3 17.9 141.9 75.8 56.7 3.3 6.4 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 9.6 16.4 19.7 145.3 76.6 56.7 4.1 7.4 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 9.5 15.5 18.7 138.3 74.9 55.3 4.0 7.3 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.1 16.9 19.4 146.1 76.7 55.6 3.0 6.4 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.9 14.5 18.1 133.1 73.6 53.7 3.0 6.3 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 17.5 23.3 22.8 153.9 78.4 63.5 4.9 9.4 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 10.4 17.1 17.7 137.5 74.8 54.4 4.0 7.7 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 7.8 13.6 18.2 135.4 74.2 54.3 2.5 5.4 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 11.0 14.4 17.1 154.2 78.3 61.3 2.3 4.9 9.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 10.4 17.9 22.0 152.5 78.0 60.3 4.7 8.1 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 12.3 14.6 17.4 146.4 76.8 63.0 2.7 5.8 10.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 12.1 23.6 26.4 160.9 80.0 62.0 4.7 9.1 15.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 8.3 13.6 17.8 139.4 75.2 57.6 3.3 6.2 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 12.6 16.7 18.8 158.5 79.0 63.3 2.5 5.6 10.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 14.3 17.9 18.9 155.0 78.5 64.6 3.1 6.6 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 9.2 16.3 20.9 149.4 77.5 60.6 4.1 7.2 11.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 3.3 13.4 18.7 128.7 72.6 56.7 3.2 6.2 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 3.3 15.4 19.3 134.0 73.8 55.0 2.9 6.3 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 2.5 9.2 18.8 131.4 73.3 58.1 2.1 4.3 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 11.0 17.8 17.3 136.3 74.5 54.1 4.3 8.2 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 13.9 26.2 24.3 156.3 79.1 62.2 6.1 10.9 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 10.6 12.6 17.4 143.2 76.1 62.2 2.3 4.9 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------