***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.10.2018.-14.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 2.9 12.7 13.3 109.1 68.3 51.4 2.4 5.8 11.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 3.9 12.7 12.4 106.3 67.0 48.2 3.4 6.9 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 4.2 15.7 12.7 107.7 67.7 49.1 3.6 7.9 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 5.4 19.5 12.9 110.1 68.4 52.0 5.3 10.5 17.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 4.1 14.0 12.1 107.4 67.6 51.3 3.8 7.6 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 13.3 17.6 13.1 110.1 68.1 51.2 5.0 9.7 16.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 3.0 11.1 12.4 107.1 67.4 47.7 2.6 5.7 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 7.7 22.1 12.3 104.0 66.4 50.6 7.7 13.6 21.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 4.0 14.8 12.6 105.5 67.0 50.0 3.6 8.0 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 4.2 15.7 12.8 103.5 66.2 49.6 3.9 8.4 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 3.6 12.4 11.2 104.3 66.7 50.3 3.2 6.8 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 3.7 13.4 11.1 102.9 66.3 50.9 3.0 6.9 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 12.6 16.2 12.4 105.5 67.1 51.8 4.4 8.9 15.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 4.9 17.1 13.8 94.1 63.7 46.0 4.1 9.7 18.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 3.1 14.2 13.6 125.0 72.2 50.5 2.8 6.2 11.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 3.3 13.1 11.8 108.3 67.9 51.7 2.8 6.3 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 2.3 8.6 12.3 108.8 67.6 47.7 2.1 4.4 8.1 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 5.0 18.7 14.2 106.7 67.1 49.8 4.6 10.0 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 3.8 13.8 12.4 106.3 67.1 48.1 3.0 7.0 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 5.3 18.5 17.0 114.2 69.1 53.0 5.1 9.8 16.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 4.6 16.8 13.0 110.2 68.4 51.1 4.1 8.7 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 3.3 10.7 12.5 102.4 65.9 46.6 2.8 6.1 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 3.4 13.2 12.6 104.8 67.0 47.9 2.7 6.4 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 4.5 17.0 13.4 101.0 65.7 47.5 3.8 9.0 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 4.3 16.9 14.4 113.4 69.5 53.2 4.0 8.5 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 5.3 16.7 13.0 106.3 67.7 51.0 5.5 9.9 15.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 3.6 14.3 14.0 110.0 68.7 52.0 3.4 7.3 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 2.7 11.1 12.3 114.1 69.4 50.6 2.5 5.4 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 6.8 23.9 14.8 107.4 67.1 49.8 6.8 13.4 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 3.4 11.8 12.5 105.0 66.9 48.4 2.9 6.3 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------