***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.10.2018.-21.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9.4 12.9 12.7 113.8 69.0 52.0 3.4 6.8 11.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 3.0 10.2 11.2 107.0 67.2 51.1 2.5 5.3 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 3.7 12.4 12.8 111.1 68.2 51.6 3.3 6.6 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 3.4 13.7 14.9 110.8 68.6 52.6 3.1 6.7 12.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 3.7 11.0 12.9 103.0 65.8 51.8 3.4 6.6 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 2.9 11.0 14.9 115.1 69.3 52.4 2.6 5.4 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 7.1 8.8 10.4 98.8 64.7 49.3 2.4 5.0 9.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 11.9 14.5 14.4 104.0 65.9 53.3 5.3 9.3 14.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 4.4 11.1 12.5 98.0 63.9 50.3 4.2 7.4 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 11.7 13.5 13.6 98.9 64.0 51.5 4.8 8.7 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 4.1 11.8 12.5 101.2 65.3 51.3 3.6 7.2 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 8.4 10.6 13.3 106.3 67.0 52.7 3.2 6.2 10.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 3.2 11.4 14.5 110.0 68.0 52.6 2.9 6.1 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 7.1 20.4 15.5 107.9 67.2 52.5 6.5 12.0 19.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 2.7 12.1 15.2 112.1 69.3 50.4 2.2 5.4 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 3.4 10.4 13.4 105.7 66.9 51.0 3.4 6.3 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 6.8 8.4 10.8 99.0 65.1 49.3 2.1 4.6 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 10.9 13.1 15.1 103.0 65.1 52.4 4.4 8.2 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 4.5 15.5 12.0 111.2 68.3 51.2 3.8 7.9 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 16.8 15.3 19.5 112.1 67.9 55.2 4.5 8.7 14.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 3.4 10.5 12.2 103.3 65.7 50.2 3.2 6.2 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 7.8 10.0 11.7 102.8 66.2 48.7 2.5 5.4 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 4.6 14.3 12.8 111.2 68.3 50.7 4.0 7.8 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 12.1 15.2 14.4 105.0 66.1 51.4 4.1 8.5 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 9.2 12.3 13.6 110.3 68.2 51.9 3.3 6.7 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 3.2 12.1 15.8 116.9 70.2 53.3 2.7 5.8 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 8.7 11.6 12.8 110.1 68.0 51.5 3.2 6.3 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 3.2 11.8 14.4 109.7 68.4 50.6 3.1 6.3 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 15.6 19.3 16.3 106.5 66.1 53.5 6.4 11.9 19.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 3.8 12.6 11.7 110.7 68.2 51.5 3.2 6.6 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------