***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.09.2018.-21.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 54.6 62.5 63.3 134.8 75.1 66.6 22.3 34.9 50.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 50.1 55.1 58.2 132.4 74.3 65.3 22.2 33.0 46.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 59.2 68.0 63.5 136.0 76.1 66.8 28.5 40.9 55.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 85.0 97.7 71.5 142.7 78.2 69.2 43.0 59.2 78.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 63.1 72.9 66.9 142.9 78.6 70.3 30.1 42.4 56.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 67.2 81.6 73.1 145.6 81.2 70.3 30.4 43.9 59.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 48.8 52.3 56.6 127.8 72.5 63.1 19.4 30.9 45.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 84.5 98.7 79.7 151.2 82.8 73.2 50.1 63.3 77.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 61.1 69.5 67.0 139.4 77.7 68.9 30.2 42.0 55.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 71.5 81.6 76.0 144.8 80.3 71.1 39.8 51.7 65.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 62.7 73.8 70.4 150.1 81.3 72.8 31.6 43.0 55.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 60.9 74.3 73.2 153.5 82.8 73.3 31.1 42.1 54.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 63.5 75.8 73.8 149.5 81.3 71.4 32.5 44.1 57.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 87.1 94.5 77.7 134.9 76.2 68.5 47.3 62.8 80.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 64.4 78.4 71.6 149.5 79.4 69.2 23.1 37.6 55.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 56.7 66.7 70.4 148.2 80.7 71.5 27.7 38.3 50.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 42.4 44.2 56.3 127.8 72.5 62.0 17.0 26.5 37.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 74.8 88.4 80.4 142.1 79.8 70.6 37.6 51.8 68.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 59.0 66.3 60.5 135.3 75.5 66.8 26.4 39.1 54.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 79.0 95.1 95.0 148.9 83.2 73.3 43.3 56.8 71.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 60.5 69.2 64.8 137.6 76.6 67.8 29.8 42.2 56.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 50.0 53.0 60.1 129.3 73.2 63.4 21.2 32.0 45.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 60.4 67.8 64.1 136.9 76.3 67.8 30.0 41.9 55.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 74.0 85.6 73.6 137.7 77.5 68.5 35.3 50.5 68.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 63.8 72.9 68.9 135.5 75.6 67.4 25.9 40.3 58.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 63.8 77.3 76.8 151.3 82.0 71.5 31.1 43.0 56.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 57.0 63.5 66.0 132.7 74.3 66.3 22.8 35.8 51.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 60.5 73.0 71.2 150.2 80.4 70.4 27.8 40.1 54.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 104.1 121.8 84.7 142.7 80.8 71.6 56.0 74.3 94.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 50.7 56.2 59.5 132.7 74.4 65.8 22.5 33.8 46.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------