***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.09.2017.-01.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 92 8 100 10.3 10.1 12.3 -0.1 48.7 48.7 9.2 10.2 11.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 91 9 100 10.4 10.1 11.9 -0.1 47.6 47.8 9.0 10.2 11.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 89 11 100 12.5 12.1 12.2 -0.3 45.5 45.7 11.3 12.3 13.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 8.3 7.1 9.3 -0.7 38.9 39.4 6.6 7.9 9.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 89 11 100 9.5 9.0 10.5 -0.3 45.6 45.7 8.1 9.3 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 8.7 8.3 8.0 -0.2 46.8 46.9 7.5 8.5 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 90 10 100 10.6 10.1 11.8 -0.4 44.2 44.6 9.4 10.4 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 4.4 3.6 7.8 -0.6 39.4 40.0 3.2 4.1 5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 90 10 100 10.4 10.2 10.7 0.0 50.4 50.3 9.3 10.2 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 86 14 100 10.2 9.7 8.9 -0.3 44.7 44.9 9.2 10.0 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 89 11 100 9.8 9.4 10.1 -0.2 46.3 46.4 8.7 9.6 10.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 8.9 7.9 8.7 -0.6 38.7 39.3 7.6 8.5 9.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 9.5 8.7 8.8 -0.5 40.2 40.9 8.3 9.2 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 10.8 10.3 10.0 -0.3 43.9 44.3 9.8 10.6 11.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 88 12 100 10.6 10.4 11.5 0.0 49.9 49.9 9.5 10.4 11.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 10.7 10.0 9.3 -0.5 41.1 41.6 9.5 10.4 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 88 12 100 10.5 10.1 11.4 -0.3 45.6 46.0 9.4 10.3 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 9.2 8.6 8.1 -0.5 42.1 42.6 8.1 9.0 9.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 92 8 100 10.4 10.2 12.0 0.0 49.5 49.5 9.3 10.2 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 5.5 4.5 6.2 -0.8 36.2 37.2 4.4 5.2 5.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 88 12 100 10.1 9.6 11.5 -0.3 45.7 45.9 8.8 9.9 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 91 9 100 9.5 9.2 11.7 -0.2 46.2 46.5 8.5 9.4 10.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 91 9 100 9.9 9.8 12.0 0.0 50.7 50.7 8.8 9.8 10.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 88 12 100 10.0 9.6 10.1 -0.3 44.8 45.0 9.0 9.8 10.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 95 5 100 10.4 10.4 11.9 0.1 51.7 51.5 9.2 10.3 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.6 8.7 8.0 -0.7 37.7 38.6 8.4 9.3 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 92 8 100 10.7 10.3 11.9 -0.2 47.8 47.8 9.1 10.5 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 9.2 8.4 9.8 -0.5 42.2 42.6 7.9 8.9 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 8.3 7.4 7.4 -0.5 41.8 42.4 6.8 7.9 9.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 91 9 100 10.8 10.4 12.1 -0.2 47.1 47.3 9.5 10.6 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------