***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.10.2017.-08.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9.6 9.2 11.5 0.0 49.5 50.0 8.1 9.2 10.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 9.8 9.5 11.2 0.1 51.6 51.5 8.2 9.4 10.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 11.8 11.4 11.6 0.0 49.7 50.4 10.4 11.4 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 7.2 6.1 8.4 -0.6 40.7 43.2 5.5 6.7 7.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 9.1 8.4 9.4 -0.1 48.1 49.6 7.2 8.6 9.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 8.2 7.3 7.1 -0.2 46.1 47.7 6.3 7.6 8.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 9.8 9.3 11.1 -0.1 48.9 49.5 8.4 9.4 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 4.1 3.7 7.4 0.0 50.0 50.8 2.7 3.7 4.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 10.2 9.9 9.7 0.1 51.8 52.4 8.6 9.8 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 9.7 9.2 8.2 0.0 50.2 51.1 8.1 9.2 10.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 7.2 8.6 8.9 -0.1 49.1 50.5 7.4 8.7 9.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 8.0 7.5 8.2 0.0 50.2 51.1 6.3 7.5 8.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 8.6 7.9 8.0 -0.1 48.2 49.8 6.7 8.0 9.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 10.0 9.7 9.6 0.1 52.6 52.5 8.6 9.6 10.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 10.0 8.9 9.7 -0.5 41.3 43.8 8.3 9.5 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 10.0 9.3 8.4 -0.2 47.3 49.1 8.3 9.5 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 9.9 9.6 10.9 0.1 51.1 51.1 8.6 9.5 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 8.4 8.0 7.6 0.1 51.5 52.0 6.7 7.9 9.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 9.8 9.6 11.3 0.2 53.1 52.7 8.4 9.4 10.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 5.0 4.7 6.1 0.2 52.7 52.7 3.2 4.5 5.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 9.5 9.0 10.7 -0.1 48.6 49.8 7.9 9.1 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 9.0 8.7 11.0 0.1 52.0 51.8 7.6 8.6 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 9.5 9.4 11.3 0.3 55.3 54.4 8.0 9.0 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 9.2 8.9 9.5 0.1 52.2 52.3 7.8 8.8 9.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 10.2 9.6 10.5 -0.1 48.3 49.3 8.4 9.7 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 8.7 8.2 7.7 -0.1 48.4 49.7 7.1 8.3 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 10.6 10.0 11.0 0.0 49.4 49.9 8.6 10.0 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 8.3 7.2 8.6 -0.5 41.1 43.8 6.6 7.9 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 7.8 7.5 7.0 0.1 52.0 52.3 6.4 7.4 8.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 10.2 9.8 11.4 0.0 50.2 50.6 8.6 9.7 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------