***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.09.2017.-01.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 19.7 19.6 19.5 -2.1 26.7 28.4 20.2 21.8 23.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 20.2 20.1 19.4 -2.2 26.1 27.5 20.8 22.2 23.5 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 20.1 20.0 19.4 -2.3 25.9 27.6 20.7 22.3 23.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 12.6 12.3 16.2 -2.6 22.7 25.3 13.4 15.0 16.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 20.1 20.0 17.7 -2.4 24.4 26.5 20.9 22.5 24.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 83 17 0 100 18.7 18.5 15.2 -3.0 19.6 21.4 20.0 21.6 23.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 19.9 19.9 19.5 -2.1 26.6 28.0 20.4 21.8 23.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 73 27 0 100 9.1 9.3 15.7 -2.4 24.6 26.8 10.1 11.6 12.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 20.0 19.9 18.6 -2.2 26.3 28.5 20.6 22.2 23.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 19.3 19.3 16.7 -2.4 24.6 26.8 20.2 21.8 23.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 20.0 19.9 18.1 -2.3 26.0 28.0 20.7 22.3 23.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 19.2 19.4 16.9 -2.1 26.7 28.9 20.0 21.7 23.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 20.6 20.5 18.2 -1.9 29.3 31.0 20.9 22.6 24.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 20.1 20.3 18.5 -1.9 29.3 30.8 20.7 22.4 23.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 20.3 20.3 18.9 -2.1 26.6 28.9 20.9 22.2 23.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 20.8 20.7 17.7 -2.3 25.8 27.8 21.5 23.1 24.6 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 19.6 19.7 19.1 -2.1 27.1 28.5 20.2 21.5 22.7 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 18.8 18.9 15.9 -2.3 25.5 27.5 19.6 21.2 22.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 19.8 19.9 19.5 -2.1 27.3 28.8 20.4 21.9 23.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 14.7 15.0 14.2 -2.1 26.6 28.7 15.6 17.2 18.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 20.0 19.9 19.2 -2.3 24.9 27.0 20.7 22.3 23.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 20.0 20.2 19.0 -2.2 26.4 27.7 20.8 22.1 23.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 20.3 20.5 19.8 -1.7 31.7 33.2 20.6 22.1 23.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 19.8 19.9 18.2 -2.1 27.4 29.2 20.5 22.1 23.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 19.9 19.7 18.4 -2.1 26.7 28.5 20.3 21.7 23.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 22.9 20.9 17.2 -1.3 34.0 35.5 20.8 22.3 23.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 20.1 19.9 19.1 -1.9 28.3 29.8 20.4 21.8 23.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 73 27 0 100 19.7 19.6 17.2 -2.6 22.3 24.8 20.7 22.3 23.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 14.1 14.3 15.4 -2.1 26.8 28.8 15.0 16.6 18.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 19.9 19.9 19.5 -2.2 26.1 27.6 20.5 21.9 23.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------