***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.10.2017.-08.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 19.5 20.4 19.6 -0.7 41.7 43.5 19.7 20.9 22.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 19.9 20.9 19.7 -0.6 43.4 44.7 20.1 21.3 22.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 21.8 21.1 20.2 -0.3 46.5 47.3 20.2 21.3 22.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 14.7 13.7 17.4 -0.3 46.3 48.1 12.5 14.1 15.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 21.7 21.2 18.8 0.0 49.5 50.1 20.0 21.2 22.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 21.1 20.7 17.3 0.1 51.5 51.7 19.2 20.6 21.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 21.4 20.5 19.6 -0.6 42.7 44.0 19.8 20.9 22.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 11.7 11.8 18.0 0.6 57.3 55.8 10.0 11.3 12.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 21.8 21.5 19.7 0.2 52.6 52.3 20.1 21.3 22.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 21.5 21.4 18.8 0.6 56.4 55.0 19.7 21.0 22.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 21.9 21.7 19.5 0.4 54.3 53.8 20.2 21.4 22.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 21.3 21.3 18.8 0.6 57.1 55.8 19.5 20.8 22.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 22.2 22.0 19.0 0.3 53.5 52.9 20.6 21.8 22.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 22.3 22.3 19.9 0.6 56.9 54.8 20.5 21.8 23.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 21.2 20.3 18.8 -0.4 45.5 47.3 19.3 20.7 21.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 22.7 22.4 19.0 0.3 53.5 53.2 21.0 22.2 23.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 21.1 20.2 19.3 -0.6 43.1 44.4 19.5 20.6 21.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 21.0 21.2 18.4 0.8 59.3 56.9 19.2 20.5 21.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 21.6 20.9 20.0 -0.3 46.7 47.2 19.9 21.1 22.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 17.7 18.0 16.5 0.8 59.6 57.3 16.1 17.3 18.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 21.7 21.0 20.0 -0.2 47.4 48.2 20.0 21.2 22.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 21.9 21.0 19.4 -0.4 44.7 45.7 20.2 21.4 22.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 21.9 21.6 20.7 0.3 53.9 52.6 20.2 21.4 22.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 21.9 21.9 19.9 0.6 57.1 55.2 20.3 21.5 22.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 21.2 20.2 18.3 -0.7 41.9 43.8 19.5 20.7 21.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 21.8 21.9 18.2 0.5 55.8 54.7 20.2 21.5 22.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 21.6 20.6 19.0 -0.6 42.4 43.9 19.9 21.1 22.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 21.5 20.7 18.2 -0.2 47.7 49.2 19.3 20.9 22.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 17.0 17.2 17.8 0.8 59.2 56.9 15.3 16.5 17.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 21.5 20.6 19.7 -0.6 43.2 44.5 19.9 21.0 22.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------