***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.10.2017.-15.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 19.6 20.0 19.4 1.0 61.5 58.4 17.6 19.0 20.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 19.9 20.1 19.2 0.8 59.4 57.0 17.9 19.3 20.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 19.9 20.4 19.9 1.1 62.7 59.5 18.0 19.4 20.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 13.7 13.9 18.0 1.7 69.8 63.9 11.0 12.3 13.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 20.1 20.7 18.5 1.4 65.2 61.2 18.1 19.5 20.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 20.5 20.3 17.0 1.4 66.2 62.0 17.6 19.0 20.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 19.5 19.7 19.2 0.8 59.5 56.9 17.5 18.9 20.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 11.5 11.3 17.5 1.6 67.1 62.8 8.8 10.1 11.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 20.0 20.7 19.0 1.4 65.3 61.4 18.1 19.5 20.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 20.6 20.4 18.1 1.5 66.4 62.3 17.7 19.1 20.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 21.2 21.0 18.6 1.6 67.2 62.6 18.2 19.6 20.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 20.6 20.4 18.4 1.6 67.9 63.3 17.7 19.1 20.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 21.3 21.0 17.8 1.4 65.4 61.8 18.5 19.8 21.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 21.4 20.9 18.7 1.2 63.3 60.7 18.3 19.8 21.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 19.3 20.4 18.5 1.7 71.2 64.7 17.7 18.9 20.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 21.9 21.7 18.5 1.7 68.4 63.4 18.9 20.2 21.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 19.3 19.4 18.8 0.6 57.5 55.5 17.3 18.7 20.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 19.9 19.7 18.0 1.6 66.7 63.0 17.0 18.3 19.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 19.7 20.1 19.5 0.9 60.7 58.1 17.8 19.2 20.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 17.1 16.8 15.7 1.5 66.1 62.7 14.3 15.6 16.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 19.9 20.3 19.3 1.2 63.1 59.7 17.9 19.3 20.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 20.0 20.0 18.7 0.6 56.8 55.3 18.0 19.5 20.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 20.1 20.6 19.8 1.2 63.4 60.2 18.2 19.5 20.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 21.0 20.8 19.0 1.5 65.8 62.2 18.0 19.5 20.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 19.2 19.6 18.0 1.1 62.5 59.0 17.6 18.8 19.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 21.1 21.0 17.9 1.6 68.5 63.8 18.4 19.6 20.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 19.6 20.1 18.8 1.0 62.3 58.9 17.8 19.1 20.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 20.3 20.6 18.4 1.8 71.2 64.8 17.6 18.9 20.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 16.1 15.8 17.1 1.5 65.4 62.3 13.2 14.5 15.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 19.5 19.8 19.3 0.9 60.1 57.5 17.7 19.0 20.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------