***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.10.2017.-22.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 17.3 17.5 17.5 0.9 60.4 57.4 15.3 16.7 18.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 17.2 17.2 17.2 0.7 57.5 55.4 15.5 16.7 17.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 17.8 18.0 17.8 1.0 60.6 57.3 15.8 17.2 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 12.2 12.1 16.0 1.8 69.4 63.1 8.7 10.3 11.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 19.0 18.5 16.4 1.3 63.8 59.6 15.9 17.4 18.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 18.7 18.0 15.1 1.3 62.7 59.1 15.4 16.9 18.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 17.0 17.0 17.2 0.6 57.4 55.4 15.3 16.5 17.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 10.2 9.8 15.4 1.4 64.2 59.9 7.2 8.6 9.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 15.6 18.6 16.9 1.2 63.0 58.8 16.0 17.5 18.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 15.2 18.1 16.0 1.3 63.2 59.1 15.5 17.0 18.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 19.1 18.6 16.5 1.4 64.1 59.8 15.7 17.3 18.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 18.8 18.5 16.2 1.4 64.8 60.3 15.5 17.1 18.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 16.0 18.9 15.7 1.2 62.4 58.9 16.3 17.8 19.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 18.1 18.3 16.6 0.9 59.7 56.4 16.1 17.5 18.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 17.4 17.5 16.7 1.9 71.4 64.2 14.7 16.0 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 20.0 19.6 16.3 1.4 64.7 60.2 16.7 18.2 19.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 16.6 16.6 16.8 0.5 56.0 54.3 15.0 16.2 17.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 16.9 17.3 15.7 1.3 62.5 58.5 14.8 16.3 17.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 17.2 17.3 17.5 0.8 58.5 56.1 15.3 16.6 17.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 14.7 15.2 13.6 1.3 63.5 59.6 12.5 14.0 15.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 15.6 18.2 17.3 1.1 61.8 58.0 15.8 17.2 18.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 17.2 17.1 16.8 0.5 55.6 54.0 15.5 16.7 17.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 17.5 17.7 17.8 1.0 60.3 57.1 15.7 17.0 18.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 15.8 18.5 16.8 1.1 61.5 57.7 16.1 17.5 18.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 17.0 17.4 16.1 1.1 62.6 58.6 15.3 16.5 17.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 19.0 18.7 15.8 1.5 66.5 61.7 15.9 17.3 18.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 17.7 17.9 16.9 1.0 60.8 57.6 15.9 17.1 18.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 18.4 18.4 16.4 1.9 70.2 63.5 15.1 16.6 18.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 13.7 14.1 14.9 1.2 61.6 58.2 11.4 13.0 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 17.2 17.2 17.4 0.7 58.3 56.1 15.4 16.6 17.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------