***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.09.2017.-22.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 19.9 19.5 19.0 -0.2 46.3 47.7 18.9 19.6 20.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 20.1 19.7 18.9 -0.3 44.5 46.1 19.2 19.9 20.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 20.3 20.0 19.3 -0.1 48.0 49.0 19.3 20.0 20.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 13.2 13.0 16.9 0.2 52.6 52.9 12.1 12.9 13.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 20.4 20.2 17.9 0.1 50.9 51.5 19.4 20.2 20.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 19.9 19.5 16.1 0.0 49.3 50.4 18.7 19.5 20.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 19.8 19.3 18.8 -0.3 44.6 46.2 18.9 19.5 20.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 10.7 10.6 16.6 0.3 55.1 54.8 9.6 10.4 11.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 20.4 20.2 18.5 0.2 53.0 53.1 19.4 20.1 20.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 20.0 19.9 17.4 0.2 54.0 53.9 19.0 19.7 20.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 20.4 20.3 18.2 0.3 54.2 54.1 19.3 20.1 20.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 20.0 20.0 17.6 0.4 56.5 55.9 18.8 19.7 20.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 20.8 20.7 17.7 0.3 54.3 54.3 19.7 20.5 21.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 20.6 20.5 18.4 0.2 53.7 53.8 19.6 20.4 21.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 19.7 19.6 18.2 0.3 55.1 54.6 18.7 19.4 20.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 21.2 21.2 17.9 0.3 54.8 54.6 20.2 20.9 21.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 19.5 19.0 18.5 -0.4 43.6 45.4 18.6 19.2 19.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 19.4 19.3 17.0 0.4 55.8 55.5 18.4 19.1 19.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 20.0 19.6 19.1 -0.2 47.1 48.1 19.0 19.7 20.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 16.4 16.4 15.0 0.4 56.8 56.2 15.3 16.0 16.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 20.3 20.0 19.0 -0.1 48.8 49.7 19.3 20.0 20.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 20.2 19.7 18.5 -0.4 43.4 45.2 19.2 19.9 20.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 20.2 20.1 19.5 0.2 53.3 53.2 19.3 20.0 20.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 20.4 20.3 18.5 0.3 54.7 54.5 19.3 20.1 20.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 19.7 19.3 17.7 -0.2 47.4 48.6 18.8 19.4 20.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 20.5 20.6 17.3 0.6 59.7 58.4 19.4 20.2 20.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 20.0 19.7 18.4 -0.1 47.8 48.9 19.1 19.8 20.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 20.0 19.9 17.6 0.2 53.9 53.8 18.8 19.7 20.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 15.5 15.4 16.3 0.3 55.6 55.4 14.4 15.2 15.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 19.9 19.5 19.0 -0.3 45.1 46.6 19.0 19.6 20.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------