***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.09.2017.-01.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 3.1 11.8 13.3 111.9 68.2 49.9 2.6 5.9 10.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 7.4 12.2 14.4 137.9 74.8 57.5 2.8 5.4 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 3.7 15.1 14.8 133.0 73.7 52.4 3.4 6.8 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 5.6 28.8 18.3 134.5 73.9 52.3 4.9 11.2 21.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 4.2 18.4 15.3 125.1 71.6 49.9 3.9 8.3 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 4.6 18.8 16.7 125.8 71.7 53.6 3.8 8.4 15.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 3.5 13.3 14.7 133.0 73.6 56.1 3.0 6.1 10.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 16.3 24.6 18.8 127.4 71.9 55.2 6.1 12.1 20.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 4.3 17.1 15.8 125.7 71.8 49.4 3.6 7.8 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 13.7 19.8 18.1 123.4 71.0 52.6 5.0 9.9 16.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 5.0 19.8 17.0 134.5 73.9 51.9 4.9 9.3 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 5.4 19.0 17.2 136.8 74.5 55.7 4.9 9.0 14.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 4.6 16.1 15.4 116.5 69.3 51.9 4.2 8.4 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 13.0 15.4 13.8 102.8 64.9 51.8 5.8 10.2 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 3.9 23.9 20.0 154.7 78.2 54.7 3.2 7.5 14.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 3.7 14.9 15.7 124.4 71.4 51.2 3.8 7.4 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 5.9 10.4 15.5 142.4 75.9 60.8 2.2 4.3 7.4 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 5.4 16.4 17.2 113.6 67.8 53.2 4.9 9.2 15.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 7.3 12.2 14.2 137.0 74.6 57.3 2.6 5.3 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 14.1 19.1 19.0 115.5 68.2 56.4 6.1 11.0 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 4.5 16.0 15.0 122.4 71.0 49.7 4.0 8.0 13.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 6.4 11.6 15.4 141.8 75.7 62.2 2.3 4.7 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 9.0 12.6 13.0 122.0 70.7 55.3 4.0 7.0 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 5.5 16.7 14.9 114.9 68.6 51.8 5.0 9.4 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 4.5 14.5 13.5 102.3 65.3 46.7 4.3 8.6 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.0 16.1 15.4 132.3 73.6 58.0 3.5 7.2 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 4.2 13.8 13.0 103.5 65.7 47.6 3.6 7.8 13.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 4.6 23.2 19.4 147.4 76.6 54.5 4.0 8.7 15.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 19.7 25.6 17.1 111.4 67.1 54.6 8.4 15.4 24.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 2.9 11.6 14.4 137.5 74.7 55.5 2.5 5.1 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------