***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.10.2017.-08.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 6.8 8.7 14.1 110.0 67.4 52.9 2.6 5.0 8.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 2.8 10.3 13.2 113.0 68.8 53.4 2.4 5.2 9.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 8.5 10.1 12.7 98.9 64.4 48.8 3.0 6.2 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 15.4 19.7 14.3 107.5 67.0 52.8 6.7 12.0 19.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 4.2 10.9 11.3 90.2 60.7 43.1 4.1 7.8 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.7 12.6 14.6 108.3 66.7 50.4 3.1 6.7 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 2.9 11.1 13.3 116.0 69.6 54.3 2.4 5.3 9.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 14.4 15.8 12.7 94.3 62.3 49.8 6.1 11.0 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 9.1 12.3 14.1 114.5 69.0 54.2 3.8 7.0 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 10.5 11.5 12.6 94.4 62.1 48.7 4.3 7.9 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 3.5 10.0 12.5 94.6 62.0 47.5 3.3 6.6 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 3.5 10.3 11.7 93.0 62.1 48.6 3.2 6.7 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 10.0 12.3 13.2 100.8 65.1 51.0 3.5 7.2 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 12.8 13.9 14.0 92.2 61.5 49.9 4.7 9.4 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 11.1 12.4 12.1 93.1 63.1 47.7 4.1 8.0 13.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 9.1 10.1 12.7 96.1 62.9 47.8 3.1 6.4 11.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 6.9 10.6 13.6 118.7 70.5 56.2 2.4 5.0 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 11.3 12.3 13.2 92.3 61.2 49.8 4.6 8.7 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 3.5 10.5 12.8 105.8 66.6 51.5 3.2 6.1 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 13.2 14.7 15.6 95.0 62.3 50.3 5.3 10.0 16.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 8.7 13.6 15.7 126.0 71.9 58.6 3.6 6.8 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 7.6 10.3 13.2 104.6 66.5 53.2 2.6 5.6 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.8 10.7 12.9 101.5 64.9 51.9 2.8 6.1 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 8.8 9.6 13.0 93.0 61.6 49.9 3.6 6.7 11.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 3.4 8.7 10.9 78.5 56.0 37.9 3.3 7.0 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 4.3 12.2 12.6 92.0 62.0 47.5 3.8 7.9 14.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 2.9 8.0 13.1 96.2 62.6 47.3 2.6 5.1 8.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 10.8 12.6 12.4 96.7 64.2 48.9 4.1 7.9 13.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 14.8 15.6 14.1 91.2 60.4 48.7 6.1 11.2 18.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 2.8 9.7 13.4 110.1 67.7 52.2 2.3 5.0 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------