***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.10.2017.-15.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 1.9 5.9 8.2 65.0 53.8 39.0 1.8 4.9 10.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 2.8 8.1 8.6 73.3 56.6 40.5 2.9 6.2 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 3.0 8.4 8.4 68.3 55.1 40.4 2.7 6.8 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 3.9 11.6 9.6 74.7 57.7 40.4 3.7 8.6 16.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 3.1 9.3 8.9 73.8 57.1 37.3 3.2 7.0 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 4.5 13.7 11.2 92.4 63.0 46.1 4.0 8.5 15.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 2.3 6.3 8.2 69.6 54.7 39.0 2.3 5.2 9.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 6.0 15.8 11.0 83.7 60.2 45.3 5.3 10.9 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 3.6 10.3 9.7 77.3 58.5 42.2 3.3 7.4 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 4.3 11.9 10.8 80.0 59.3 44.2 3.7 8.2 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 3.2 9.1 9.1 78.2 58.4 41.2 3.1 6.6 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 2.9 8.9 9.4 80.9 59.2 43.3 2.3 5.9 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 4.0 10.4 10.1 81.2 59.1 43.6 3.2 7.3 13.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 4.8 12.9 10.7 75.3 57.0 43.6 3.9 9.7 18.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 2.6 6.9 8.5 66.5 55.4 37.6 2.5 5.6 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 3.0 8.6 9.2 78.1 58.2 41.4 2.5 6.0 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 2.0 5.8 9.3 79.4 58.6 41.0 2.0 4.3 7.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 13.8 14.2 12.2 83.5 60.3 47.5 4.7 9.7 17.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 2.8 8.6 8.6 73.5 56.7 41.0 2.7 6.4 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 11.4 12.7 15.2 90.3 62.4 48.2 3.4 7.8 14.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 3.8 9.8 8.6 70.2 55.7 39.5 3.8 8.0 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 2.9 8.8 10.4 86.6 61.3 44.4 2.7 5.8 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 2.9 8.5 8.8 74.0 57.0 42.0 2.4 6.0 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 5.4 12.9 10.2 73.8 56.8 43.8 4.5 10.0 18.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 2.6 6.6 7.8 58.7 50.4 32.4 2.8 6.6 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 3.9 10.7 10.5 83.1 60.5 44.4 3.3 7.2 13.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 2.5 6.6 8.0 60.9 51.5 36.0 2.7 6.2 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 2.4 6.7 9.2 75.4 57.9 40.0 2.2 5.0 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 16.9 17.8 13.4 85.5 60.6 48.3 5.8 12.1 21.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 2.3 6.7 8.3 68.7 55.3 40.6 2.3 5.4 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------