***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.10.2017.-22.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 4.4 11.3 9.9 82.3 58.8 44.4 3.6 8.0 14.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 9.1 8.8 9.7 83.6 59.0 46.0 2.5 6.0 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 3.9 10.5 10.2 85.5 59.6 44.6 3.3 7.2 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 10.3 9.2 9.7 75.9 57.3 43.7 2.9 6.9 13.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 3.7 8.7 9.0 78.2 57.4 42.2 3.5 6.8 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 2.6 6.9 10.2 78.6 57.5 44.4 2.3 5.1 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 2.9 8.0 9.6 80.9 58.1 44.5 2.6 5.8 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 5.7 12.7 11.0 84.8 59.0 45.3 5.2 9.6 15.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 4.1 9.7 10.1 86.0 60.0 45.6 4.0 7.2 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.6 11.6 11.0 85.7 59.3 45.7 4.2 8.3 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 10.1 9.8 9.3 80.3 58.3 44.4 3.8 7.4 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.0 8.5 9.4 79.5 57.5 43.8 3.3 6.5 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.3 8.3 10.1 79.4 57.9 44.3 3.0 6.2 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 6.8 18.2 12.9 90.8 61.4 46.8 6.1 12.3 21.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 9.0 7.6 9.4 68.1 55.9 41.5 2.1 5.8 11.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 3.9 8.4 9.3 77.3 57.4 43.7 3.5 6.7 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 2.6 7.8 9.9 86.5 60.2 47.6 2.0 5.0 9.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 11.0 11.2 12.4 88.9 60.1 47.1 4.1 8.0 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 13.2 13.1 10.0 86.0 59.7 46.0 4.0 9.0 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 12.5 13.2 15.1 92.0 61.1 48.0 4.3 8.9 15.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 3.6 10.4 10.1 87.6 60.8 45.2 3.3 6.9 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 3.5 10.5 10.8 90.0 61.7 48.4 2.9 6.6 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 4.7 13.0 10.5 88.4 60.7 45.8 4.1 8.7 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 14.0 14.1 11.7 87.8 60.2 46.2 4.3 9.5 17.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 3.8 9.4 9.9 77.5 57.4 41.9 3.1 7.1 13.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 3.1 7.6 10.0 78.5 57.4 42.4 2.7 5.7 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 10.1 9.5 10.1 80.1 58.1 43.6 3.2 7.0 12.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 8.7 7.9 9.1 71.8 56.4 43.1 2.9 6.2 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 6.5 15.8 13.1 89.6 60.2 47.3 5.7 11.2 19.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 11.1 10.7 9.8 81.9 58.4 45.0 3.5 7.7 14.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------