***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.09.2017.-22.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 43.4 39.3 45.6 92.3 54.3 49.3 22.2 35.1 51.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 39.8 41.0 45.9 101.0 59.3 53.2 22.0 33.4 47.3 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 27.9 45.9 46.2 95.7 56.2 50.0 27.5 40.4 55.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 69.3 70.1 51.8 98.9 58.7 51.9 42.5 59.9 80.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 51.1 47.1 44.5 92.0 54.3 48.5 30.4 43.3 58.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 51.8 53.5 52.6 101.7 59.5 52.9 30.9 44.6 60.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 37.5 38.2 45.8 99.1 58.4 52.9 19.7 31.2 45.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 70.6 71.0 53.4 98.4 57.5 52.5 50.8 64.5 79.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 48.5 50.4 49.7 101.1 59.6 53.4 30.8 42.7 56.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 58.6 57.9 52.5 96.4 56.3 51.5 40.6 53.0 66.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 50.1 50.0 47.9 97.5 57.7 51.9 32.3 43.9 57.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 49.9 49.8 47.6 98.1 58.0 52.6 31.8 43.4 56.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 31.9 50.0 48.8 94.9 56.1 51.2 32.9 45.0 58.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 69.7 65.7 51.5 90.2 52.3 48.4 47.0 63.1 81.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 24.5 47.3 50.1 95.2 57.6 49.7 23.8 38.9 58.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 28.3 44.0 47.0 94.5 56.0 50.7 28.4 39.7 52.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 31.5 35.4 48.1 106.2 62.4 55.7 16.5 26.4 38.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 58.0 56.0 55.0 94.7 54.7 51.0 38.4 51.9 67.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 47.4 47.8 45.6 99.6 58.5 52.4 26.5 39.8 56.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 62.2 62.8 64.8 98.3 56.6 52.5 43.3 56.8 71.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 49.7 51.8 49.4 102.0 60.1 53.6 29.7 42.6 57.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 38.1 42.6 49.9 104.9 61.6 55.5 21.2 32.9 46.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 49.7 48.4 45.2 95.9 56.3 50.9 30.4 43.0 58.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 59.4 55.1 49.8 92.1 53.6 49.5 35.4 51.0 69.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 25.7 36.8 42.0 79.3 45.9 42.1 25.7 40.7 59.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 49.4 48.4 48.5 95.7 56.6 51.5 31.1 43.2 56.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 43.9 34.9 44.2 85.1 49.4 45.2 22.1 35.4 52.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 48.5 48.9 50.1 98.2 58.9 51.4 28.1 41.1 56.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 80.6 77.5 57.7 94.5 54.1 50.7 55.9 73.0 92.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 40.7 40.5 45.8 98.4 57.8 51.9 22.7 34.4 48.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------