***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.09.2016.-02.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 76 24 0 100 8.2 8.2 10.6 -2.0 23.4 24.4 8.9 10.0 11.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 8.4 8.5 10.7 -1.4 29.3 30.3 8.8 10.0 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 74 26 0 100 10.3 10.5 11.1 -1.6 25.9 27.1 11.0 12.1 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 5.6 5.9 8.4 -1.5 27.6 28.7 6.3 7.6 8.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 80 20 0 100 7.0 7.1 9.1 -1.9 22.2 23.7 8.0 9.1 10.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 80 20 0 100 6.5 6.5 6.5 -1.9 22.0 23.3 7.3 8.2 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 8.6 8.8 10.7 -1.5 28.5 29.4 9.1 10.2 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 83 17 0 100 2.1 2.1 6.7 -1.8 20.9 22.3 2.9 3.9 4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 80 20 0 100 8.4 8.5 9.4 -1.6 22.5 24.0 9.2 10.1 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 80 20 0 100 8.3 8.3 7.7 -1.6 22.4 23.9 9.0 9.8 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 85 15 0 100 7.7 7.8 8.9 -1.8 21.0 22.4 8.5 9.5 10.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 89 11 0 100 6.5 6.5 7.4 -2.1 19.0 20.3 7.4 8.3 9.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 96 4 0 100 7.1 7.1 7.5 -2.2 17.5 18.7 8.1 9.0 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 9.1 9.3 9.3 -1.3 27.6 28.9 9.6 10.4 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 9.0 9.2 10.7 -1.0 32.1 33.2 9.3 10.2 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 88 12 0 100 8.4 8.5 8.1 -1.9 20.7 22.0 9.3 10.2 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 10.5 9.3 10.8 -0.9 36.1 36.9 9.1 10.2 11.1 30 Palic 37000G16 75 25 0 100 7.3 7.4 7.4 -1.5 25.0 26.5 7.9 8.8 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 8.6 8.7 10.7 -1.3 28.8 29.9 9.0 10.0 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 80 20 0 100 3.5 3.6 5.3 -1.8 22.0 23.4 4.2 5.0 5.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 75 25 0 100 7.9 8.0 10.6 -1.6 24.3 25.6 8.7 9.7 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 8.0 8.2 10.9 -1.0 33.3 34.2 8.2 9.2 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 8.1 8.2 10.7 -1.3 28.7 29.8 8.5 9.6 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 8.4 8.5 9.5 -1.3 27.8 29.1 8.8 9.7 10.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 87 13 0 100 7.7 7.9 9.8 -2.2 21.2 22.2 8.9 10.1 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 94 6 0 100 7.2 7.0 6.5 -2.5 15.5 16.9 8.2 9.1 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 80 20 0 100 7.7 7.9 10.2 -2.1 23.0 23.9 8.9 10.3 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 7.2 7.5 9.1 -1.2 30.4 31.6 7.6 8.7 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 81 19 0 100 5.6 5.8 6.4 -1.7 22.5 23.8 6.6 7.7 8.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 8.6 8.7 10.8 -1.6 26.1 27.2 9.2 10.4 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------