***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.10.2016.-09.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 7.5 7.9 10.0 -1.3 31.3 33.3 8.1 9.1 10.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 7.5 8.1 9.8 -1.0 33.8 35.5 8.0 9.1 10.1 30 Becej 27400G00 72 28 0 100 9.7 10.2 10.2 -1.2 31.2 33.3 10.3 11.3 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 4.7 5.3 7.6 -1.1 32.3 34.7 5.4 6.6 7.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 72 28 0 100 6.5 7.0 8.2 -1.3 29.6 32.5 7.3 8.5 9.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 70 30 0 100 5.7 6.4 6.1 -1.0 33.1 35.5 6.4 7.6 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 7.9 8.3 9.8 -1.1 33.8 35.6 8.3 9.2 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 71 29 0 100 2.1 2.5 6.1 -1.2 29.8 32.8 2.7 3.6 4.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 7.9 8.3 8.4 -1.2 29.3 31.9 8.5 9.6 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 71 29 0 100 7.4 7.8 6.9 -1.2 29.8 32.6 8.0 9.1 10.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 74 26 0 100 6.6 7.0 7.7 -1.3 27.9 31.2 7.4 8.5 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 5.8 6.1 6.9 -1.3 28.7 32.2 6.4 7.4 8.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 72 28 0 100 6.0 6.4 6.6 -1.3 28.3 31.6 6.8 7.9 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 72 28 0 100 8.0 8.5 8.3 -1.1 31.2 33.6 8.6 9.4 10.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 8.0 8.5 9.2 -0.9 34.3 36.3 8.4 9.5 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 73 27 0 100 7.6 8.1 7.2 -1.3 29.3 32.5 8.3 9.4 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 8.2 8.7 9.7 -0.8 36.7 37.9 8.5 9.3 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 6.2 6.6 6.5 -1.1 30.9 33.6 6.8 7.8 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 7.8 8.3 9.8 -1.1 32.4 34.4 8.3 9.2 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 70 30 0 100 2.6 3.0 4.6 -1.3 29.6 33.0 3.3 4.4 5.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 7.1 7.6 9.6 -1.2 30.1 32.4 7.8 8.9 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 7.1 7.5 9.7 -1.0 34.2 36.0 7.5 8.4 9.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 73 27 0 100 7.2 7.7 9.7 -1.1 31.1 33.3 7.8 8.8 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 7.3 7.7 8.3 -1.1 30.9 33.6 7.8 8.6 9.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 71 29 0 100 7.7 8.2 9.0 -1.4 30.8 33.1 8.4 9.6 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 6.6 7.0 6.2 -1.3 29.6 33.2 7.2 8.3 9.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 7.8 8.4 9.5 -1.3 31.7 33.7 8.5 9.8 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 6.2 6.8 8.1 -0.9 34.7 36.6 6.7 7.8 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 69 31 0 100 5.7 6.0 5.7 -1.3 29.0 32.3 6.3 7.2 8.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 8.0 8.5 10.0 -1.2 32.3 34.2 8.5 9.5 10.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------