***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.10.2016.-16.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 6.0 7.7 9.6 0.1 51.8 50.8 6.3 7.5 8.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 8.0 7.7 9.3 0.2 52.5 51.2 6.3 7.5 8.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.0 9.6 9.6 0.0 50.3 49.9 8.5 9.6 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 3.6 4.6 6.6 -0.4 43.9 45.4 3.8 5.0 6.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 5.2 6.2 6.9 -0.4 43.6 45.3 5.5 6.6 7.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 6.3 5.6 5.1 -0.5 42.9 44.5 5.0 5.9 6.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 6.1 7.6 9.3 0.0 50.6 50.1 6.4 7.5 8.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 0.8 1.7 5.3 -0.4 43.4 45.0 1.0 2.1 3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 6.3 7.3 7.4 -0.3 45.2 46.8 6.5 7.6 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 6.1 6.9 6.0 -0.4 43.8 45.6 6.3 7.3 8.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 5.6 6.4 6.3 -0.6 41.0 43.1 5.9 6.9 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 4.7 5.4 5.7 -0.6 41.2 43.2 4.9 5.9 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 5.2 5.9 5.1 -0.7 39.2 41.7 5.5 6.4 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 6.7 7.5 7.4 -0.3 45.3 46.4 6.9 7.8 8.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 8.0 7.3 7.6 -0.4 43.6 45.3 6.8 7.6 8.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 6.6 7.3 5.7 -0.6 40.0 42.1 6.9 7.8 8.7 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 6.3 7.6 9.1 0.1 51.9 51.1 6.5 7.5 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 5.0 5.8 5.5 -0.5 42.2 44.5 5.3 6.3 7.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 8.0 7.6 9.3 0.1 51.9 50.7 6.4 7.5 8.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 1.2 2.1 3.7 -0.4 43.8 45.4 1.5 2.5 3.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 5.6 7.0 8.8 -0.1 48.1 48.6 5.9 7.1 8.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 5.6 6.8 8.9 0.0 49.5 49.4 5.8 6.8 7.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 7.7 7.2 9.1 0.0 49.8 49.4 6.2 7.2 8.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 5.8 6.5 7.2 -0.4 43.6 45.4 5.9 6.8 7.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 6.2 7.6 8.2 0.0 49.3 49.2 6.4 7.6 8.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 5.8 6.2 5.1 -0.7 38.8 41.4 6.0 6.7 7.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 5.7 7.6 8.9 0.1 50.9 50.4 6.1 7.6 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 4.9 5.5 6.7 -0.5 42.1 44.1 5.0 5.9 6.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 4.2 5.1 5.0 -0.5 42.1 44.5 4.5 5.6 6.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 6.3 7.9 9.4 0.1 51.9 50.9 6.5 7.7 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------