***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.09.2016.-23.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 7.2 7.5 9.8 -0.7 33.6 36.2 7.5 8.2 8.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 7.1 7.6 9.5 -0.5 38.0 39.7 7.3 8.1 8.9 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 9.4 9.7 9.9 -0.6 34.4 36.8 9.7 10.3 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 4.8 5.0 7.2 -0.6 33.7 36.1 5.0 5.6 6.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 6.3 6.4 7.7 -0.8 30.2 33.1 6.6 7.4 8.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 5.7 5.9 5.6 -0.7 31.7 34.5 6.0 6.6 7.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 7.3 7.7 9.6 -0.6 36.4 38.6 7.6 8.2 8.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 1.9 2.0 5.7 -0.8 30.6 33.5 2.1 2.7 3.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 7.5 7.7 8.0 -0.7 31.6 34.6 7.7 8.4 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 7.2 7.3 6.6 -0.7 31.4 34.4 7.4 8.0 8.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 6.6 6.7 7.2 -0.8 28.7 31.8 6.9 7.6 8.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 5.6 5.7 6.3 -0.9 27.8 30.9 5.9 6.6 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 6.0 6.1 6.0 -1.0 25.9 29.2 6.4 7.1 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 7.8 8.0 8.0 -0.6 34.1 36.4 8.0 8.5 9.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 7.6 7.9 8.7 -0.4 37.1 39.1 7.7 8.3 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 7.5 7.6 6.6 -0.9 28.3 31.3 7.8 8.5 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 7.5 8.0 9.5 -0.3 42.1 43.2 7.6 8.2 8.8 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 6.0 6.2 6.1 -0.7 32.0 35.0 6.3 7.0 7.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 7.4 7.7 9.6 -0.5 37.3 38.9 7.6 8.2 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 2.6 2.7 4.3 -0.8 31.1 34.4 2.8 3.5 4.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 6.9 7.2 9.3 -0.7 33.0 35.8 7.2 7.9 8.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 6.7 7.0 9.4 -0.4 38.5 40.1 6.8 7.4 8.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 7.0 7.3 9.5 -0.5 36.5 38.1 7.2 7.9 8.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 7.0 7.2 7.9 -0.6 33.2 35.8 7.2 7.7 8.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 7.2 7.6 8.6 -0.8 31.5 34.4 7.6 8.4 9.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 6.4 6.5 5.6 -1.1 24.7 28.0 6.8 7.4 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 7.2 7.6 9.2 -0.8 32.9 35.6 7.6 8.6 9.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 5.9 6.2 7.6 -0.5 35.5 37.8 6.1 6.7 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 5.4 5.4 5.4 -0.8 30.3 33.8 5.6 6.2 6.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 7.5 7.9 9.7 -0.6 35.4 37.6 7.8 8.5 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------