***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.09.2016.-02.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 19.3 19.6 19.5 -2.1 27.7 29.3 20.1 21.5 22.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 20.1 20.4 19.8 -1.8 30.2 31.8 20.7 21.9 23.2 30 Becej 27400G00 69 31 0 100 19.8 20.1 19.7 -2.1 28.1 29.7 20.6 22.0 23.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 12.5 12.7 16.6 -2.1 27.6 29.4 13.3 14.9 16.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 73 27 0 100 19.7 19.8 17.6 -2.5 24.7 26.7 20.7 22.3 23.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 70 30 0 100 18.7 18.7 15.4 -2.6 24.2 26.7 19.6 21.2 22.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 19.7 20.0 19.6 -1.9 29.5 31.1 20.3 21.6 22.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 9.3 9.3 15.8 -2.2 26.6 28.8 9.9 11.4 12.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 19.7 19.9 18.8 -2.0 27.8 29.7 20.4 22.0 23.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 19.4 19.5 16.8 -2.2 27.1 29.3 20.1 21.6 23.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 19.7 19.7 17.9 -2.5 25.1 27.1 20.5 22.1 23.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 19.1 19.2 16.8 -2.3 26.2 28.4 19.9 21.5 22.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 19.8 19.6 17.3 -2.7 23.2 25.4 20.7 22.3 23.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 20.3 20.7 18.8 -1.7 31.0 32.6 20.8 22.3 23.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 20.1 20.5 19.5 -1.6 31.7 33.1 20.6 21.9 23.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 20.4 20.3 17.3 -2.6 24.1 26.2 21.2 22.8 24.3 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 19.5 20.0 19.5 -1.6 32.0 33.5 20.1 21.3 22.4 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 18.9 19.1 16.0 -2.1 27.2 29.6 19.6 21.1 22.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 19.8 20.2 19.9 -1.8 30.6 32.2 20.4 21.7 23.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 14.8 15.0 14.1 -2.1 27.0 29.6 15.6 17.1 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 19.6 19.9 19.4 -2.2 26.4 28.2 20.5 22.0 23.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 20.3 20.7 19.5 -1.6 31.4 32.9 20.8 22.1 23.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 20.1 20.7 20.0 -1.5 33.1 34.5 20.7 22.0 23.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 19.7 20.0 18.5 -1.9 28.9 30.8 20.4 21.9 23.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 73 27 0 100 19.3 19.4 18.1 -2.3 25.2 27.1 20.1 21.5 22.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 19.5 19.5 15.8 -2.7 23.2 25.5 20.5 22.0 23.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 73 27 0 100 19.4 19.6 18.7 -2.2 26.4 28.1 20.2 21.6 22.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 19.9 20.1 17.9 -1.9 29.0 30.8 20.5 22.1 23.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 14.3 14.4 15.4 -2.1 27.4 29.9 14.9 16.5 17.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 19.7 20.0 19.8 -2.0 29.0 30.6 20.4 21.7 23.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------