***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.10.2016.-23.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 17.0 16.8 16.9 0.3 54.4 53.1 15.2 16.5 17.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 17.0 17.0 17.0 0.5 57.3 54.8 15.2 16.5 17.6 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 15.5 17.5 17.3 0.4 55.4 53.7 15.7 17.1 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 10.7 10.6 14.8 0.4 54.7 54.1 8.5 10.1 11.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 17.8 17.7 15.6 0.4 55.4 54.5 15.8 17.2 18.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 17.3 17.5 14.5 0.8 58.7 57.3 15.4 16.8 18.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 14.9 16.8 16.9 0.4 56.1 54.0 15.1 16.3 17.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 9.1 9.3 14.7 0.8 59.5 57.7 7.2 8.6 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 18.0 17.9 16.2 0.5 56.4 54.9 15.9 17.4 18.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 17.5 17.6 15.4 0.7 58.5 56.6 15.4 16.9 18.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 17.8 17.9 15.7 0.6 57.7 56.3 15.6 17.2 18.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 17.6 17.9 15.5 0.8 59.3 57.6 15.5 17.1 18.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 18.4 18.5 15.1 0.7 58.7 57.1 16.3 17.8 19.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 17.9 17.8 16.2 0.6 56.7 54.7 15.8 17.3 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 16.2 16.2 15.5 0.5 56.4 55.4 14.5 15.7 16.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 18.8 18.9 15.4 0.6 57.6 56.4 16.7 18.2 19.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 16.5 16.5 16.7 0.6 57.9 55.3 14.8 16.0 17.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 16.8 16.9 15.1 0.8 58.8 56.7 14.7 16.2 17.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 17.1 17.1 17.2 0.5 57.3 54.9 15.1 16.5 17.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 14.6 14.8 13.0 0.9 60.0 57.9 12.5 14.0 15.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 17.7 17.4 16.7 0.3 54.2 53.2 15.7 17.1 18.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 17.1 17.0 16.6 0.5 56.4 54.4 15.3 16.6 17.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 17.3 17.4 17.4 0.6 57.6 55.1 15.5 16.8 18.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 18.0 18.0 16.2 0.6 57.3 55.2 15.9 17.4 18.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 16.8 16.6 15.4 0.3 53.7 52.9 15.1 16.3 17.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 17.8 18.1 15.0 0.9 60.6 58.6 16.0 17.3 18.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 17.5 17.3 16.2 0.3 54.6 53.4 15.7 17.0 18.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 16.9 16.8 15.3 0.5 55.8 55.1 14.8 16.3 17.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 13.7 13.8 14.4 0.8 59.2 57.1 11.4 13.0 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 15.0 16.9 17.0 0.5 56.3 54.2 15.2 16.4 17.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------