***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.09.2016.-23.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 18.6 18.9 18.3 -0.7 37.9 40.8 18.7 19.4 20.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 19.9 19.3 18.5 -0.5 41.5 43.4 19.0 19.6 20.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 20.1 19.4 18.6 -0.6 39.1 41.8 19.1 19.8 20.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 11.8 12.2 15.9 -0.6 38.8 41.8 11.9 12.7 13.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 19.1 19.4 16.8 -0.7 36.9 40.2 19.2 19.9 20.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 18.3 18.8 15.2 -0.6 40.4 42.8 18.5 19.3 20.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 19.6 19.0 18.4 -0.5 40.1 42.2 18.7 19.3 20.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 10.5 9.8 15.5 -0.5 41.4 43.7 9.5 10.2 10.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 20.2 19.5 17.5 -0.5 40.3 42.8 19.2 19.9 20.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 19.8 19.1 16.3 -0.5 41.5 43.7 18.8 19.5 20.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 20.3 19.4 16.9 -0.6 38.8 41.6 19.1 19.9 20.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 19.8 19.0 16.3 -0.5 40.4 42.8 18.7 19.5 20.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 19.2 19.7 16.2 -0.7 37.3 40.0 19.5 20.3 21.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 20.5 19.8 17.5 -0.4 42.5 44.5 19.4 20.2 20.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 18.3 18.9 17.5 -0.3 43.2 45.2 18.5 19.1 19.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 19.8 20.2 16.5 -0.7 37.9 40.8 20.0 20.7 21.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 19.3 18.8 18.2 -0.4 43.1 44.6 18.4 19.0 19.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 19.2 18.6 15.8 -0.4 42.4 44.2 18.2 18.9 19.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 19.8 19.2 18.7 -0.4 42.0 43.9 18.8 19.5 20.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 16.2 15.6 13.7 -0.4 42.8 44.6 15.1 15.9 16.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 20.1 19.3 18.1 -0.7 37.3 40.4 19.1 19.8 20.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 20.0 19.4 18.2 -0.5 41.4 43.5 19.0 19.7 20.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 20.0 19.6 18.8 -0.3 44.4 45.9 19.1 19.8 20.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 20.2 19.6 17.4 -0.4 41.9 43.9 19.2 19.9 20.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 18.5 18.7 16.8 -0.8 35.6 39.1 18.6 19.2 19.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 19.0 19.5 15.7 -0.6 39.3 41.5 19.2 19.9 20.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 18.8 19.1 17.6 -0.7 37.2 40.1 18.9 19.6 20.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 18.4 19.0 16.7 -0.5 41.2 43.7 18.6 19.4 20.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 15.3 14.7 15.1 -0.4 42.5 44.3 14.2 15.0 15.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 19.7 19.0 18.5 -0.5 40.0 42.2 18.8 19.4 20.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------