***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.09.2016.-02.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 2.9 11.2 12.1 109.0 66.1 50.3 2.6 5.9 11.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 6.8 9.6 12.0 120.7 70.0 51.9 2.8 5.2 8.4 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 3.8 12.3 11.3 105.3 64.9 50.0 3.4 7.1 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 7.5 17.3 10.9 80.4 56.3 43.5 7.6 14.2 23.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 6.0 15.1 11.9 91.5 61.1 47.1 5.6 10.6 17.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 5.0 12.2 11.6 80.2 56.7 42.7 4.9 9.7 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 7.8 11.1 11.8 119.2 69.4 51.1 2.7 5.6 9.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 8.6 18.9 13.6 92.5 60.8 47.9 8.6 14.3 21.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 5.2 11.9 11.5 87.2 58.4 46.2 4.9 9.1 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 7.2 16.3 13.6 89.8 59.5 47.5 7.2 12.5 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 6.4 15.8 11.7 92.3 61.4 47.0 6.1 11.2 18.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 5.7 14.3 11.7 93.1 61.6 47.3 5.6 10.2 16.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 5.4 13.8 12.9 91.5 61.7 45.4 5.1 9.6 15.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 7.1 16.9 15.3 104.0 64.3 50.0 7.4 11.9 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 4.4 10.3 7.9 66.6 53.1 39.2 4.4 9.1 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 4.6 11.8 11.9 90.2 60.8 46.0 4.4 8.4 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 5.5 8.2 12.1 120.1 70.0 52.8 1.8 3.9 7.1 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 6.5 14.3 14.9 93.3 60.0 48.4 6.4 10.9 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 3.3 10.0 12.3 117.5 69.1 52.1 3.0 5.6 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 6.9 16.3 16.1 97.8 62.4 49.7 6.6 11.6 18.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 5.4 12.7 11.0 88.7 58.4 45.7 5.4 9.8 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 6.5 9.8 13.3 122.9 70.8 53.5 2.3 4.7 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 4.6 12.5 12.8 115.1 68.3 51.8 4.5 7.7 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 6.1 15.2 13.2 99.3 62.3 49.2 6.1 10.8 16.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 5.4 15.8 13.8 105.6 65.4 50.1 5.2 9.8 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 4.3 10.6 10.5 78.9 57.3 42.8 4.1 8.2 14.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 4.2 15.2 13.5 114.0 67.8 51.2 3.6 7.9 14.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 5.7 13.8 9.7 76.9 56.2 42.3 6.0 11.3 18.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 10.1 23.5 15.4 97.1 61.5 49.1 9.8 17.1 26.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 6.9 9.3 11.9 116.2 68.6 50.9 2.4 4.9 8.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------