***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.10.2016.-16.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 2.4 11.4 11.4 109.9 68.1 43.8 2.2 5.3 10.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 2.6 9.2 8.6 86.9 61.0 37.8 2.9 6.1 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 3.2 12.3 11.2 103.0 66.2 44.8 2.7 6.5 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 3.2 11.3 10.8 85.7 60.5 39.9 3.1 7.3 14.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 2.9 10.2 11.3 91.0 61.3 40.0 3.2 6.7 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 3.9 9.6 9.8 73.3 55.0 38.2 3.7 7.9 14.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 2.4 8.9 9.6 96.8 64.6 40.6 2.4 5.2 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 4.0 14.1 12.0 91.2 60.8 40.5 4.3 9.4 17.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 3.3 12.3 12.5 99.9 64.7 43.4 3.3 7.0 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 3.6 13.1 12.9 97.2 63.2 42.9 3.6 7.9 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 3.1 9.9 10.9 88.9 60.5 40.0 3.1 6.6 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 2.7 8.9 10.3 83.4 58.9 39.2 2.6 6.2 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 3.4 9.5 10.3 79.4 57.4 39.0 3.1 7.0 13.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 4.8 15.1 12.1 90.4 61.9 45.1 4.0 9.4 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 3.1 9.1 10.0 84.7 61.8 39.0 2.8 5.9 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 2.7 8.4 10.3 81.8 58.6 39.5 2.4 5.9 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 2.0 6.8 8.4 91.7 62.7 38.4 2.2 4.4 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 4.2 14.5 13.5 97.7 63.2 44.9 4.0 8.8 16.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 2.6 9.7 8.6 85.6 60.4 39.2 2.5 6.3 12.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 2.9 10.9 15.7 97.4 62.8 43.1 2.8 6.5 12.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 3.6 12.9 12.1 105.7 66.8 44.5 3.3 7.1 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 2.4 8.4 8.6 89.4 61.3 39.7 2.6 5.6 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 3.1 10.1 9.3 88.0 61.2 42.4 2.7 6.3 12.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 4.4 16.0 12.4 98.2 64.2 46.2 3.8 8.9 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 3.4 13.1 12.4 108.2 67.4 43.7 3.1 6.7 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 3.5 9.5 9.9 76.2 57.0 37.8 3.5 7.4 13.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 2.8 11.4 12.0 112.4 68.6 44.5 2.5 5.6 10.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 2.8 7.5 10.0 81.9 59.8 39.2 2.6 5.3 9.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 5.5 19.1 14.4 100.5 64.0 45.3 5.4 11.3 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 2.4 9.2 9.6 94.5 63.7 40.8 2.4 5.5 10.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------