***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.10.2016.-23.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 4.0 15.8 9.7 109.0 67.5 43.6 3.8 8.3 15.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 2.6 11.7 8.6 107.1 66.0 42.6 2.6 6.2 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 3.5 14.4 9.3 106.2 66.5 44.2 3.5 7.7 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 3.2 14.9 10.0 104.7 67.4 47.1 3.4 7.6 14.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 3.7 12.8 9.2 97.3 65.0 45.8 4.2 7.9 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 2.3 6.7 8.7 81.0 58.2 41.2 2.2 4.8 8.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 2.8 12.1 9.2 114.1 68.7 44.0 3.1 6.3 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 4.7 15.7 9.5 97.3 64.0 44.4 5.3 10.1 16.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 3.9 12.4 9.4 96.2 64.7 46.4 4.6 8.1 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 4.4 14.9 9.9 95.7 63.8 45.5 5.1 9.6 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 3.3 12.2 8.6 97.3 64.6 44.3 3.7 7.4 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 3.1 11.5 8.4 98.5 64.6 43.3 3.5 6.9 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 2.5 9.2 8.9 88.6 61.0 42.2 2.8 6.1 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 5.4 18.6 9.7 89.8 60.6 42.0 6.1 12.9 22.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 2.7 14.1 9.3 107.0 68.4 46.1 2.5 6.4 12.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 2.9 10.0 8.6 94.6 63.4 44.0 3.3 6.4 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 2.4 11.6 9.5 117.6 69.4 43.6 2.4 5.4 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 4.0 12.8 10.5 96.0 63.4 45.6 4.1 8.3 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 3.9 15.7 8.4 100.6 63.7 41.9 4.2 9.2 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 5.1 16.6 13.1 98.8 64.2 47.1 5.1 10.4 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 4.0 13.8 9.0 97.0 64.3 45.6 4.1 8.3 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 3.2 14.2 9.7 111.0 67.3 42.4 3.4 7.4 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 3.8 13.9 8.3 94.0 61.0 41.7 4.1 9.1 16.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 4.5 16.6 9.6 97.2 63.7 44.4 4.9 10.1 18.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 3.5 14.9 10.1 102.4 66.0 44.9 3.6 8.0 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 3.4 10.4 8.8 89.1 61.7 42.1 3.4 6.9 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 3.7 14.0 10.0 106.6 66.8 43.7 3.7 7.7 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 3.0 12.2 9.1 105.5 67.4 46.6 3.2 6.6 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 6.4 18.1 11.2 97.3 63.5 45.9 6.7 12.1 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 3.5 14.6 8.8 104.9 65.7 42.8 3.8 8.1 14.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------