***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.09.2016.-23.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 42.8 46.2 44.7 106.0 62.3 52.6 21.3 34.2 50.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 39.5 40.0 39.9 100.5 59.3 48.0 21.1 32.6 46.4 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 27.0 49.3 43.8 102.9 60.3 51.4 26.5 39.6 55.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 67.6 63.7 44.4 92.7 54.6 48.2 42.0 58.7 77.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 49.6 48.5 45.1 95.9 56.4 50.0 30.1 43.1 58.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 30.1 41.4 43.7 84.1 47.3 42.1 30.5 43.6 59.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 19.5 39.1 40.7 102.1 60.5 49.0 19.3 30.5 44.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 68.9 65.3 48.8 93.6 53.5 48.3 48.5 62.4 77.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 47.8 47.1 46.4 96.9 56.6 50.6 30.1 42.0 55.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 58.0 56.7 50.7 96.4 55.5 50.1 40.2 52.3 65.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 48.9 47.7 44.6 94.6 55.1 49.2 32.1 43.8 57.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 48.8 44.1 42.1 89.7 51.6 46.0 31.3 42.8 56.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 50.1 45.3 45.2 89.1 51.3 45.9 32.0 44.1 58.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 45.7 69.3 52.7 97.8 56.0 49.0 46.5 62.7 81.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 48.1 40.3 38.3 85.1 51.9 44.8 23.2 38.3 57.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 45.1 41.9 43.6 91.1 53.1 47.3 28.3 39.6 52.6 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 16.2 32.5 39.5 99.2 58.7 47.3 16.5 26.4 38.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 57.9 56.0 54.4 98.1 56.1 50.7 37.8 50.8 65.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 46.7 46.8 40.5 99.6 58.5 48.3 25.9 38.9 54.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 63.5 60.8 61.4 97.0 55.2 50.1 43.2 56.3 71.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 49.9 49.8 44.9 98.8 58.1 51.3 29.2 42.6 58.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 21.7 40.5 41.9 99.7 58.9 48.1 21.7 33.2 47.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 28.8 49.6 42.5 99.7 58.1 49.3 29.5 42.7 57.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 59.5 58.8 49.7 100.0 57.8 51.0 34.6 50.4 69.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 51.0 53.4 49.0 103.5 60.8 53.1 25.7 41.3 60.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 50.8 40.9 41.3 82.6 46.7 42.0 31.0 43.6 57.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 43.6 47.7 47.5 106.3 62.5 53.1 21.7 35.0 52.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 47.0 42.5 41.1 89.8 53.5 46.6 26.8 39.6 54.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 54.5 78.8 57.4 99.0 56.6 50.9 55.0 71.7 90.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 41.0 42.4 41.2 102.1 60.2 49.4 22.3 34.0 47.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------