***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.09.2015.-04.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 10.2 8.7 11.0 -1.0 35.7 36.6 8.6 9.7 10.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 7.8 8.3 10.4 -1.1 32.7 33.8 8.3 9.6 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 10.5 10.8 10.8 -1.1 33.0 34.1 10.8 11.8 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 7.8 6.2 8.6 -0.9 35.0 36.2 6.1 7.3 8.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 9.2 7.9 9.1 -0.8 37.4 38.4 7.6 8.8 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 8.3 7.4 7.2 -0.6 40.7 41.8 6.9 8.0 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 8.3 8.6 10.5 -1.2 31.9 32.8 8.7 9.8 10.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 4.0 2.9 7.2 -0.8 36.2 37.3 2.7 3.6 4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 10.3 9.8 10.0 -0.2 47.3 47.5 8.9 10.0 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 9.9 8.9 8.2 -0.6 39.8 40.7 8.5 9.5 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 9.5 8.5 8.8 -0.7 38.8 39.7 8.1 9.2 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 8.3 7.2 8.0 -0.7 38.1 39.1 6.9 8.0 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 9.0 8.2 8.2 -0.4 42.4 43.4 7.6 8.6 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 9.0 9.2 9.2 -1.0 32.2 33.5 9.2 10.2 11.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 90 10 100 10.1 9.8 10.9 -0.1 47.9 48.2 8.9 9.9 10.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 10.3 9.3 8.5 -0.6 39.2 40.3 8.9 9.9 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 8.3 8.6 9.9 -1.2 30.5 31.6 8.8 9.9 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 8.8 7.6 7.3 -0.8 35.6 36.7 7.4 8.4 9.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 8.3 8.6 10.5 -1.1 33.0 34.2 8.6 9.8 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 5.0 3.6 5.3 -1.0 33.1 34.8 3.6 4.6 5.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 9.9 8.5 10.8 -0.9 36.6 37.4 8.3 9.4 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 7.4 7.7 10.1 -1.3 29.3 30.6 7.9 8.9 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 8.0 8.2 10.5 -1.0 33.1 34.3 8.2 9.3 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 9.8 8.6 9.2 -0.8 35.4 36.4 8.5 9.5 10.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 10.2 8.7 10.2 -1.0 35.2 36.3 8.5 9.8 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 9.1 8.0 7.5 -0.8 37.2 38.6 7.8 8.7 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 10.6 8.8 10.5 -1.0 36.0 36.9 8.5 10.0 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 8.7 7.6 9.3 -0.7 38.5 39.4 7.3 8.4 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 7.9 6.6 6.7 -0.8 35.6 36.9 6.4 7.5 8.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 8.6 8.9 10.8 -1.1 33.6 34.6 8.9 10.1 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------