***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2015.-11.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 7.2 8.2 10.1 -0.7 41.7 43.5 7.5 8.8 9.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 7.4 8.2 9.7 -0.7 40.3 42.5 7.7 8.8 9.9 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 9.5 10.3 9.9 -0.7 41.0 43.0 9.8 10.9 11.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 4.6 5.8 7.7 -0.6 41.1 43.1 5.2 6.4 7.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 6.3 7.5 7.6 -0.5 43.3 44.8 6.8 8.0 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 5.9 7.2 6.3 -0.1 48.0 48.3 6.3 7.3 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 7.6 8.3 9.7 -0.8 40.3 42.3 7.9 8.9 9.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 2.0 3.3 6.4 -0.1 47.9 48.4 2.4 3.5 4.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 7.7 8.7 8.1 -0.5 43.7 45.3 8.0 9.1 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 7.2 8.4 6.8 -0.3 45.5 46.7 7.6 8.7 9.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 6.6 7.9 7.4 -0.3 46.0 46.8 7.0 8.1 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 5.7 7.0 7.3 -0.1 48.8 48.9 6.1 7.1 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 6.1 7.5 6.8 -0.1 48.6 48.7 6.5 7.6 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 7.9 8.5 7.9 -0.8 38.9 41.8 8.2 9.1 9.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 7.9 8.7 8.2 -0.6 40.7 42.6 8.3 9.2 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 7.5 8.9 7.1 -0.3 46.3 46.9 8.0 9.1 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 7.8 8.4 9.1 -0.8 38.8 41.6 8.1 9.1 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 6.2 7.2 6.3 -0.5 43.4 45.3 6.5 7.6 8.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 7.6 8.3 9.7 -0.7 40.6 42.8 7.9 8.9 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 2.6 3.7 4.8 -0.4 44.7 46.2 2.9 4.0 5.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 6.9 7.8 9.3 -0.5 42.7 44.4 7.2 8.3 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 6.8 7.4 9.1 -0.9 37.7 40.9 7.1 8.1 9.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 7.2 7.9 9.4 -0.7 40.5 42.9 7.4 8.4 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 7.0 7.7 8.0 -0.6 41.6 43.8 7.2 8.2 9.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 7.6 8.5 8.7 -0.6 42.0 43.8 7.9 9.1 10.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 6.6 7.8 6.9 -0.2 47.4 48.0 7.0 8.0 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 7.4 8.6 9.3 -0.6 42.4 44.0 7.8 9.2 10.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 6.0 6.9 7.8 -0.6 41.1 42.9 6.4 7.5 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 5.7 6.6 5.8 -0.5 43.0 45.1 5.9 7.0 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 7.7 8.5 9.9 -0.7 40.6 42.7 8.0 9.2 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------