***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2015.-18.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 7.3 6.5 9.4 -0.3 46.8 47.4 5.3 6.7 8.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 7.2 6.3 9.2 -0.3 46.2 47.0 5.2 6.6 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 9.4 8.7 9.2 -0.3 46.4 47.3 7.7 8.9 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 4.6 3.7 6.8 -0.4 44.2 46.0 2.9 4.1 5.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 6.5 5.7 6.8 -0.3 46.6 47.8 4.6 5.9 7.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 5.7 5.3 5.4 0.1 50.9 51.2 4.1 5.3 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 7.1 6.3 9.2 -0.3 46.2 47.0 5.4 6.6 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 2.0 1.5 5.7 0.1 51.3 51.3 -0.1 1.4 2.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 7.4 6.7 7.3 -0.2 47.1 48.0 5.7 6.9 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 7.1 6.6 6.1 -0.1 48.8 49.3 5.5 6.6 7.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 6.6 6.2 6.6 0.0 49.9 50.5 5.1 6.2 7.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 5.6 5.2 6.5 0.1 51.1 51.3 4.0 5.2 6.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 6.1 5.6 5.9 -0.1 48.7 49.5 4.4 5.6 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 7.6 6.7 7.4 -0.4 44.7 46.2 6.0 7.1 8.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 7.2 6.5 7.4 -0.4 43.4 45.6 5.9 6.8 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 7.6 7.0 6.2 -0.1 48.7 49.6 6.0 7.1 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 5.3 6.2 8.7 -0.5 43.5 45.0 5.5 6.6 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 6.1 5.4 5.7 -0.1 47.9 48.5 4.4 5.6 6.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 7.3 6.4 9.2 -0.3 46.2 47.0 5.4 6.7 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 2.6 2.0 4.3 0.0 49.4 49.6 0.7 2.0 3.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 7.1 6.3 8.5 -0.2 46.8 47.7 5.2 6.5 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 4.5 5.3 8.6 -0.6 41.3 43.4 4.7 5.9 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 7.1 6.2 8.8 -0.3 45.8 46.8 5.3 6.5 7.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 6.6 6.0 7.3 -0.3 46.4 47.4 5.2 6.2 7.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 7.5 6.7 7.9 -0.3 46.1 47.2 5.6 7.0 8.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 6.3 5.9 6.2 -0.2 47.8 49.0 5.1 6.0 6.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 7.6 6.6 8.7 -0.2 46.9 47.7 5.1 6.9 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 5.5 4.8 6.9 -0.4 44.2 46.2 4.0 5.1 6.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 5.5 4.8 5.2 -0.1 48.7 49.1 3.5 4.9 6.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 7.5 6.7 9.4 -0.2 46.8 47.5 5.5 6.9 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------