***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.09.2015.-25.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 8.1 7.4 9.7 -0.5 40.1 42.0 7.1 7.8 8.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 6.8 7.2 9.3 -0.6 37.9 40.3 6.9 7.7 8.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 10.1 9.5 9.5 -0.5 38.9 41.1 9.3 9.9 10.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 5.4 4.8 7.3 -0.5 40.0 41.9 4.6 5.2 5.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 7.3 6.6 7.3 -0.4 41.9 43.8 6.2 7.0 7.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 6.5 6.2 5.9 -0.1 47.5 48.3 5.6 6.3 6.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 8.1 7.3 9.3 -0.6 37.6 40.0 7.1 7.8 8.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 2.6 2.2 6.0 -0.2 45.6 46.8 1.7 2.3 2.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 8.3 7.8 7.9 -0.2 45.0 46.4 7.3 8.0 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 7.9 7.4 6.5 -0.3 44.2 45.8 7.0 7.7 8.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 7.5 7.0 7.1 -0.2 45.2 46.6 6.5 7.2 7.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 6.5 6.1 6.8 -0.2 46.4 47.6 5.5 6.2 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 7.0 6.6 6.5 -0.2 46.6 47.7 6.0 6.7 7.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 7.4 7.7 7.7 -0.6 35.9 39.1 7.6 8.1 8.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 8.0 7.6 8.3 -0.3 44.3 45.4 7.2 7.8 8.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 8.3 7.9 6.8 -0.2 45.0 46.4 7.4 8.1 8.8 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 7.1 7.3 8.8 -0.7 34.6 37.9 7.2 7.8 8.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 6.9 6.2 6.0 -0.4 41.5 43.6 5.8 6.6 7.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 7.0 7.4 9.3 -0.5 38.2 40.6 7.2 7.8 8.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 2.2 2.8 4.4 -0.4 42.2 44.0 2.4 3.1 3.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 7.8 7.1 9.0 -0.4 41.3 43.1 6.7 7.5 8.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 6.2 6.4 8.8 -0.8 32.5 36.2 6.4 7.0 7.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 7.8 7.0 9.1 -0.5 38.0 40.6 6.8 7.5 8.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 7.5 7.0 7.7 -0.5 39.9 42.2 6.7 7.3 7.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 8.4 7.6 8.4 -0.5 40.5 42.4 7.2 8.0 8.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 7.3 6.8 6.4 -0.3 43.4 45.1 6.4 7.0 7.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 8.5 7.6 9.0 -0.5 40.8 42.6 7.2 8.1 8.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 6.6 6.0 7.5 -0.4 41.2 42.9 5.6 6.3 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 5.1 5.5 5.5 -0.4 42.0 43.9 5.2 5.8 6.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 7.2 7.6 9.6 -0.5 38.8 41.0 7.4 8.1 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------