***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2015.-11.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 18.7 19.2 18.3 -1.2 36.6 39.0 18.9 20.4 21.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 21.3 19.5 18.4 -1.2 36.9 39.7 19.2 20.7 22.0 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 19.1 19.7 18.3 -1.2 36.6 39.0 19.3 20.8 22.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 11.5 11.9 16.1 -1.6 32.4 35.1 11.9 13.7 15.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 18.8 19.4 16.5 -1.4 35.2 37.5 19.2 20.8 22.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 18.6 19.4 15.3 -1.1 39.1 40.9 18.8 20.4 21.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 18.7 19.2 18.3 -1.2 36.6 39.4 18.9 20.3 21.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 11.7 10.2 15.5 -1.1 39.0 40.8 9.7 11.1 12.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 18.9 19.6 17.1 -1.3 36.7 38.9 19.3 20.8 22.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 18.7 19.4 16.1 -1.2 37.7 39.7 19.0 20.5 21.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 19.1 19.7 16.4 -1.2 37.1 39.1 19.3 20.9 22.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 21.2 19.4 16.3 -1.1 38.2 40.0 18.8 20.5 22.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 22.1 20.3 15.9 -1.3 36.7 38.8 19.9 21.4 22.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 19.3 19.9 17.0 -1.3 36.6 39.1 19.6 21.2 22.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 18.4 18.6 16.3 -1.7 31.4 34.2 18.7 20.2 21.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 20.0 20.5 16.1 -1.4 36.0 38.2 20.3 21.8 23.2 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 18.4 18.7 17.7 -1.6 32.7 36.1 18.7 20.1 21.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 20.5 18.8 15.6 -1.2 38.2 40.2 18.3 19.8 21.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 21.1 19.4 18.5 -1.2 37.2 39.8 19.0 20.5 21.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 17.5 16.0 13.8 -1.0 40.1 41.7 15.4 16.9 18.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 18.9 19.5 17.7 -1.3 36.0 38.3 19.3 20.7 22.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 18.9 19.3 17.7 -1.6 32.1 35.6 19.3 20.8 22.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 19.2 19.8 18.3 -1.2 37.5 40.0 19.4 20.9 22.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 19.0 19.7 17.0 -1.2 37.1 39.4 19.3 20.9 22.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 18.6 19.0 16.6 -1.4 34.6 37.2 18.9 20.2 21.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 21.8 20.1 15.8 -1.4 36.2 38.2 19.8 21.2 22.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 19.0 19.5 17.5 -1.3 36.2 38.7 19.2 20.6 21.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 18.2 18.6 16.3 -1.7 32.4 35.0 18.6 20.3 21.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 16.6 14.9 14.9 -1.1 39.1 41.0 14.4 15.9 17.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 21.0 19.4 18.5 -1.1 37.7 40.2 19.0 20.4 21.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------