***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2015.-18.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 16.1 17.4 17.3 -0.7 42.7 44.6 16.4 18.1 19.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 19.0 17.5 17.3 -0.8 41.7 44.1 16.7 18.3 19.8 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 16.4 17.7 17.4 -0.7 42.5 44.4 16.7 18.4 20.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 9.1 10.3 15.2 -0.9 40.1 41.9 9.6 11.2 12.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 16.4 17.6 15.7 -0.8 41.8 43.4 16.7 18.3 19.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 18.5 16.8 14.5 -0.8 42.2 43.8 15.8 17.7 19.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 18.6 17.1 17.1 -0.8 41.1 43.6 16.3 17.9 19.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 6.8 8.4 14.7 -0.5 44.2 45.4 7.2 9.0 10.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 16.4 17.7 16.3 -0.7 42.7 44.4 16.7 18.4 20.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 15.9 17.4 15.3 -0.7 43.2 44.7 16.4 18.0 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 16.2 17.6 15.6 -0.7 42.9 44.3 16.6 18.3 19.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 15.8 17.1 15.5 -0.6 43.3 44.6 16.1 17.8 19.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 19.1 17.6 15.1 -0.9 41.1 42.9 16.7 18.5 20.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 16.7 18.1 16.1 -0.8 41.7 43.7 17.2 18.9 20.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 15.6 16.6 15.3 -1.0 39.3 41.0 16.0 17.4 18.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 19.7 18.1 15.3 -0.8 41.5 43.1 17.2 18.9 20.5 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 15.9 16.6 16.6 -1.1 37.5 40.8 16.1 17.8 19.3 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 15.4 16.8 14.9 -0.7 42.9 44.6 15.9 17.4 18.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 18.9 17.5 17.4 -0.7 42.4 44.5 16.6 18.2 19.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 12.3 14.0 13.1 -0.5 44.5 45.8 12.7 14.6 16.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 16.3 17.5 16.9 -0.7 42.6 44.3 16.6 18.2 19.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 16.5 17.3 16.6 -1.1 37.8 41.0 16.8 18.5 20.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 19.2 17.8 17.4 -0.7 42.9 44.8 16.8 18.5 20.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 16.3 17.8 16.2 -0.7 42.3 44.1 16.8 18.6 20.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 16.1 17.1 15.7 -0.8 41.9 43.7 16.3 17.8 19.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 18.8 17.2 15.0 -0.9 40.7 42.6 16.5 18.1 19.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 18.9 17.5 16.5 -0.7 42.4 44.3 16.5 18.2 19.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 15.8 16.9 15.4 -1.0 39.8 41.5 16.3 17.8 19.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 11.5 13.0 14.2 -0.6 43.4 45.0 11.9 13.7 15.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 18.7 17.4 17.5 -0.7 42.6 44.7 16.4 18.0 19.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------