***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.09.2015.-25.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 17.8 17.9 17.2 -1.4 27.1 30.0 18.2 18.9 19.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 18.1 18.2 17.3 -1.4 27.5 30.7 18.5 19.1 19.8 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 18.3 18.2 17.2 -1.6 25.3 28.6 18.6 19.3 20.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 11.0 10.8 14.7 -1.9 21.3 24.5 11.5 12.3 13.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 18.3 18.1 15.3 -1.8 22.6 26.2 18.7 19.4 20.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 17.7 17.6 14.0 -1.7 25.0 28.5 18.0 18.8 19.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 17.9 17.9 17.2 -1.4 27.6 30.7 18.2 18.9 19.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 8.9 8.7 14.1 -1.7 22.8 27.2 9.2 9.9 10.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 18.4 18.3 16.0 -1.7 24.1 27.7 18.7 19.5 20.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 18.0 17.8 14.8 -1.7 22.7 26.8 18.3 19.1 19.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 18.4 18.1 15.1 -1.8 23.0 26.7 18.7 19.5 20.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 17.9 17.7 14.9 -1.8 22.7 26.8 18.2 19.0 19.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 18.7 18.5 14.7 -1.9 22.6 26.4 19.0 19.8 20.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 18.6 18.4 15.8 -1.8 21.4 25.8 19.0 19.7 20.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 17.5 17.4 15.4 -1.9 21.7 24.6 17.9 18.6 19.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 19.2 18.9 14.9 -1.8 22.9 26.4 19.5 20.3 21.0 30 Nis 06700G01 71 29 0 100 17.5 17.4 16.6 -1.7 22.7 26.2 17.9 18.6 19.2 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 17.3 17.1 14.2 -1.8 21.6 26.2 17.7 18.4 19.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 17.9 18.0 17.4 -1.4 27.2 30.5 18.3 19.0 19.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 14.4 14.2 12.4 -1.7 22.0 27.0 14.8 15.6 16.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 18.3 18.1 16.6 -1.7 23.9 27.4 18.6 19.3 20.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 18.1 18.0 16.6 -1.7 21.8 25.5 18.5 19.2 19.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 18.3 18.3 17.2 -1.4 26.3 29.8 18.6 19.3 19.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 18.3 18.1 15.7 -1.8 22.0 26.2 18.7 19.5 20.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 17.8 17.7 15.6 -1.6 24.7 27.8 18.1 18.7 19.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 18.4 18.1 14.5 -1.9 21.4 25.5 18.7 19.5 20.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 18.1 18.1 16.4 -1.4 27.1 30.0 18.4 19.1 19.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 17.6 17.4 15.1 -2.0 21.2 24.3 18.1 18.9 19.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 13.5 13.3 13.5 -1.8 21.4 26.4 13.9 14.7 15.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 17.9 18.0 17.4 -1.4 28.3 31.4 18.2 18.9 19.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------