***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.09.2015.-04.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 11.3 15.3 13.4 159.6 79.3 64.8 2.8 5.6 9.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 6.9 11.7 11.2 136.3 74.3 58.8 2.6 5.1 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 14.5 20.0 13.2 162.1 79.9 64.1 3.9 7.5 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 18 82 100 30.4 51.4 22.4 229.2 88.3 77.7 6.7 13.4 22.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 19.7 29.0 18.3 183.8 83.4 70.5 5.0 9.6 16.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 19.0 25.4 18.0 160.4 79.4 69.1 3.9 8.5 15.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 8.9 12.0 9.4 114.5 68.3 52.7 2.8 6.2 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 22.7 30.7 18.5 166.4 80.3 69.0 6.3 11.9 19.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 16.3 23.9 17.8 192.6 84.8 71.8 4.9 8.6 13.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 19.9 27.6 19.1 173.0 81.5 70.1 5.7 10.4 17.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 20.2 28.6 17.0 179.2 82.0 68.2 5.5 10.3 17.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 16.6 25.5 17.1 183.3 82.7 68.4 3.9 7.9 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 16.4 25.2 19.4 184.2 83.2 70.6 3.5 7.4 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 12.9 20.6 14.4 134.9 74.1 58.9 5.9 10.3 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 20 80 100 23.0 40.6 21.0 218.4 87.7 74.8 4.0 8.8 16.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 14.8 23.6 20.1 198.3 85.4 74.6 2.9 6.3 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 2.7 9.0 9.4 112.8 68.3 50.4 2.4 4.8 8.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 15.8 19.6 17.9 149.3 77.3 64.8 5.4 9.3 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 7.5 12.4 11.9 144.6 76.1 60.1 3.4 6.0 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 17.2 20.6 20.2 145.5 76.6 65.2 5.4 9.7 15.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 17.4 28.5 17.5 205.1 86.4 74.4 4.6 8.7 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 2.8 10.5 10.4 116.0 69.3 50.7 2.5 5.2 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 8.8 13.6 11.5 137.9 74.5 57.3 4.1 7.0 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 11.7 21.3 15.0 148.5 77.1 62.1 5.1 9.3 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 17.7 23.8 16.3 159.1 79.3 67.9 4.0 8.4 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 17.8 35.5 21.6 225.7 88.5 74.5 3.2 7.3 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 14.3 18.1 14.7 149.0 77.2 65.8 3.2 6.9 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 20 80 100 23.6 38.7 21.1 214.0 86.9 75.4 4.8 10.0 17.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 26.1 32.5 18.8 154.5 78.1 66.6 8.4 14.8 23.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 10.6 14.0 12.1 149.4 77.3 63.8 2.8 5.6 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------