***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2015.-11.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 2.4 12.9 9.8 122.8 72.1 47.4 2.6 5.7 10.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 3.7 14.4 9.3 118.3 70.7 46.2 4.1 7.7 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 3.3 11.5 8.3 97.9 65.2 43.6 3.3 6.8 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 4.0 17.3 11.1 115.6 70.6 48.6 3.9 8.2 14.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 3.6 11.7 10.4 111.2 69.0 48.0 3.5 6.5 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.8 12.9 12.8 103.7 67.6 52.3 3.6 7.1 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 3.1 13.6 9.8 123.1 71.9 45.5 3.6 6.8 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 5.8 17.4 11.5 107.1 68.1 47.9 6.3 10.8 16.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 4.2 12.7 10.0 107.1 67.8 47.3 3.8 7.2 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 4.2 13.3 11.2 106.8 68.0 47.5 4.0 7.6 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 2.7 11.0 9.0 108.7 68.8 44.7 2.7 5.7 10.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 2.7 12.0 9.1 104.1 67.6 46.2 2.7 6.1 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 3.9 13.5 10.8 106.7 68.3 51.1 3.3 7.0 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 5.0 18.9 11.5 106.9 67.8 44.7 4.9 10.0 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 2.9 10.5 11.0 105.0 68.5 47.9 2.7 5.5 9.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.0 12.2 10.4 112.2 69.8 51.0 2.5 5.7 10.6 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 2.5 11.9 9.4 125.8 72.5 44.8 2.9 5.7 9.5 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 4.4 17.2 14.0 114.5 69.9 49.5 4.0 8.4 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 3.4 13.8 8.5 107.6 67.6 44.3 3.6 7.4 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 6.2 23.8 20.9 135.8 74.8 55.0 5.8 10.9 18.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 4.3 13.4 9.1 109.9 68.5 46.1 4.2 7.7 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 2.5 14.2 9.2 127.8 72.5 46.1 2.8 6.1 11.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 3.6 11.5 7.9 95.3 64.2 40.8 3.7 7.2 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 4.1 14.9 10.9 101.6 66.4 45.4 3.9 8.3 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 4.3 14.3 11.3 117.8 70.8 48.3 4.7 8.0 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 3.5 12.6 10.2 107.0 68.0 49.4 3.0 6.6 11.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 2.8 13.0 11.4 124.9 72.7 48.2 3.1 6.1 10.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 2.4 9.5 10.9 110.0 69.6 49.1 2.1 4.6 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 7.2 24.4 16.5 123.8 71.9 51.2 7.2 12.8 20.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 3.4 12.1 9.2 113.4 69.5 46.0 3.8 6.8 10.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------