***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2015.-18.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 2.2 7.5 8.9 105.6 66.7 47.6 2.0 4.2 7.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 2.5 9.1 10.1 114.2 68.9 47.3 2.4 4.8 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 2.6 8.2 9.0 94.9 63.1 46.8 2.1 4.8 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 10.5 12.9 10.8 99.2 64.7 52.1 3.1 7.2 13.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 8.9 10.6 10.2 96.2 63.4 51.5 2.9 6.3 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 10.6 17.6 14.8 128.8 73.1 60.0 3.7 7.8 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 1.8 8.8 10.3 120.7 70.7 46.6 1.9 4.1 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 13.9 17.4 12.3 102.8 65.9 53.0 5.3 10.4 17.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 8.5 10.2 9.8 92.9 62.5 50.6 3.1 6.3 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 11.5 13.5 11.3 94.9 63.2 51.7 4.7 8.8 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 9.6 11.4 9.6 97.9 64.6 50.5 3.4 6.9 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.3 13.3 11.0 113.8 69.2 54.7 3.1 6.7 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 10.2 16.9 13.0 128.1 72.9 59.8 3.8 7.7 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 12.6 14.4 12.1 94.0 62.7 49.9 4.1 8.9 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 3.3 10.7 11.3 98.7 65.6 50.3 2.8 6.0 10.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 8.6 12.3 11.2 113.5 69.0 56.2 3.0 6.2 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 2.4 9.3 11.2 128.8 72.7 47.6 2.3 4.5 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 11.7 13.6 12.8 93.7 62.4 53.4 4.7 9.2 15.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 2.6 10.0 9.8 107.0 66.8 47.5 2.3 5.1 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 11.1 14.5 17.2 104.7 66.1 56.4 4.4 8.5 14.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 8.0 9.6 9.1 97.8 64.1 49.9 3.1 5.9 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 2.5 9.2 11.6 122.7 71.2 49.4 2.2 4.5 7.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 2.7 9.3 9.5 97.6 63.9 47.4 2.1 5.1 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 10.0 10.9 10.9 89.1 60.8 49.5 3.3 7.3 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 3.0 9.8 10.8 106.0 66.3 50.9 2.4 5.5 9.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 10.0 14.9 12.5 120.1 71.3 56.2 3.9 7.5 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 2.7 9.1 10.5 109.9 67.7 49.3 2.5 5.0 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 8.4 10.0 10.9 98.5 65.0 50.6 3.0 6.0 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 14.8 17.9 14.3 96.6 63.4 54.0 5.9 11.5 19.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 2.2 8.3 9.5 107.3 67.0 46.8 2.0 4.4 8.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------