***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.10.2015.-25.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 4.1 16.1 9.5 107.0 67.7 47.8 3.7 8.2 15.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 3.5 10.3 8.1 86.0 60.4 43.0 3.1 6.9 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 4.1 13.8 9.1 95.1 63.6 44.9 3.9 8.4 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 4.1 16.2 13.4 111.0 68.9 48.3 3.7 8.1 14.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 4.2 13.6 12.2 106.8 67.2 47.7 3.8 7.6 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 3.2 9.1 12.7 91.7 63.0 48.5 2.8 5.7 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 3.4 9.3 8.2 87.9 61.7 44.1 3.2 6.3 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 5.5 13.9 11.9 86.3 60.7 45.1 5.0 9.8 16.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 4.3 13.2 11.8 107.0 67.3 47.4 4.0 7.6 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 5.3 14.0 12.2 94.7 63.1 45.7 5.0 9.3 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 3.9 10.9 10.5 93.1 62.8 44.8 3.6 7.0 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 3.6 9.3 10.4 86.5 61.5 45.3 3.5 6.5 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 3.5 9.7 11.0 86.0 61.0 46.3 3.2 6.6 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 6.8 17.7 10.4 84.6 59.9 43.7 6.2 12.3 21.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 2.8 13.6 14.2 111.8 69.6 47.1 2.5 6.1 11.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 3.5 9.8 10.7 90.2 62.4 46.0 3.3 6.5 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 2.6 7.7 7.7 81.2 58.2 41.9 2.6 5.5 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 3.9 11.3 13.0 92.3 61.9 46.0 3.7 7.5 13.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 4.6 13.4 8.0 85.0 59.8 42.5 4.1 9.1 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 5.2 12.8 15.2 84.1 59.1 45.3 4.7 9.4 16.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 4.2 16.5 10.8 110.2 68.3 47.4 4.0 8.5 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 3.4 9.4 7.6 77.1 56.3 41.0 3.1 7.3 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 4.5 13.6 8.3 85.4 60.0 42.7 4.1 9.1 17.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 4.8 15.1 11.0 90.9 61.6 44.8 4.2 9.7 17.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 3.6 16.7 12.1 112.9 69.3 49.0 3.2 7.7 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 3.2 11.3 11.0 89.9 62.9 45.9 3.6 7.2 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 4.0 14.5 10.7 107.9 67.8 48.3 3.7 7.8 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 2.9 11.6 13.4 106.0 67.6 46.9 2.7 5.9 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 5.8 14.6 13.1 86.9 59.9 45.0 5.3 10.5 17.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 3.9 12.2 8.4 90.2 62.0 44.2 3.5 7.6 14.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------