***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.09.2015.-25.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 38.3 53.6 41.6 123.6 70.5 61.9 19.6 31.9 47.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 38.1 45.8 38.8 112.7 65.9 56.1 19.5 31.3 46.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 45.0 54.2 39.6 111.1 65.3 57.9 25.6 39.0 55.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 84.3 90.1 57.8 136.2 75.2 66.9 38.0 54.8 74.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 62.5 62.6 51.1 123.6 70.8 63.0 27.8 41.1 56.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 48.4 61.8 58.3 119.2 68.9 61.0 27.1 41.0 58.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 35.7 42.2 37.7 110.7 65.0 54.9 16.9 28.4 43.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 78.5 76.2 54.2 114.0 66.5 60.0 45.6 60.0 75.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 58.4 59.1 49.5 123.1 70.5 62.8 28.4 40.2 54.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 56.1 65.7 53.8 116.0 67.4 60.5 37.5 50.0 64.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 60.8 58.8 46.2 118.6 68.2 61.0 28.8 41.6 56.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 57.2 56.8 47.5 119.8 68.9 61.8 27.7 39.5 53.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 61.1 63.1 54.2 124.4 71.1 63.4 29.1 41.9 57.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 68.2 72.9 48.3 103.8 60.8 55.0 42.3 60.0 80.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 63.3 66.4 57.4 129.9 72.9 62.6 22.1 36.8 55.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 55.0 56.7 52.3 127.3 72.3 64.9 24.8 36.3 49.8 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 15.8 37.7 37.6 111.0 65.2 53.2 14.9 25.3 38.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 55.3 62.0 57.7 111.0 64.7 57.7 35.5 48.5 63.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 45.8 53.4 38.3 110.0 64.5 55.6 25.2 38.6 55.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 72.5 70.6 73.5 115.3 67.1 59.9 41.2 54.5 69.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 61.0 65.5 46.4 129.7 72.7 64.9 27.8 41.0 57.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 20.9 45.6 38.7 109.4 64.1 52.7 20.6 32.7 47.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 46.1 50.5 37.3 103.2 60.9 53.6 26.6 40.0 56.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 58.1 63.3 47.8 105.9 62.1 55.5 33.5 49.4 68.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 63.5 64.6 50.5 124.0 70.9 62.2 22.6 37.7 56.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 64.3 67.5 55.2 132.7 74.3 66.2 31.1 43.3 57.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 52.8 54.6 47.3 123.0 70.4 61.5 19.6 32.5 48.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 59.3 61.8 56.4 129.5 72.7 63.8 24.7 37.6 53.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 76.5 86.5 62.7 113.1 65.6 58.5 51.2 68.2 87.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 38.7 47.6 39.2 114.1 66.6 57.7 20.6 32.3 47.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------