***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.09.2020.-04.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 11.2 11.6 12.9 1.7 76.3 74.1 8.6 9.7 10.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 11.3 11.5 12.2 1.4 73.1 71.3 8.3 9.6 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 13.2 13.4 12.8 1.4 73.2 71.8 10.8 11.8 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 88 12 100 7.6 8.3 9.5 0.8 63.7 62.8 6.1 7.3 8.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 10.3 10.4 11.0 1.3 72.4 71.1 7.6 8.8 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 90 10 100 8.2 8.8 7.9 0.7 62.4 61.7 6.9 8.0 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 11.3 11.6 12.4 1.5 74.6 72.4 8.7 9.8 10.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 91 9 100 3.8 4.2 7.9 0.5 59.3 58.7 2.7 3.6 4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 11.1 11.2 10.7 1.0 68.9 67.8 8.9 10.0 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 88 12 100 9.7 10.3 8.8 0.7 63.0 62.2 8.5 9.5 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 88 12 100 9.4 10.0 10.1 0.7 63.5 62.7 8.1 9.2 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 90 10 100 8.2 8.8 9.1 0.7 63.4 62.7 6.9 8.0 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 91 9 100 8.8 9.5 9.0 0.7 64.0 63.2 7.6 8.6 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 11.2 11.3 10.3 1.0 68.9 67.7 9.2 10.2 11.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 88 12 100 10.2 10.6 11.2 0.6 60.9 60.2 8.9 9.9 10.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 87 13 100 10.2 11.0 9.6 0.9 66.4 65.7 8.9 9.9 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 11.2 11.2 11.8 1.3 71.5 69.8 8.8 9.9 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 88 12 100 8.7 9.2 8.2 0.7 62.4 61.7 7.4 8.4 9.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 11.2 11.2 12.2 1.3 71.4 70.0 8.6 9.8 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 89 11 100 4.8 5.3 6.7 0.7 61.7 61.0 3.6 4.6 5.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 11.0 11.2 12.1 1.4 74.4 72.9 8.3 9.4 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 10.2 10.2 12.0 1.2 70.9 69.5 7.9 8.9 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 10.5 10.5 12.0 1.0 68.2 67.2 8.2 9.3 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 45 55 100 10.4 10.4 10.3 0.9 66.9 65.8 8.5 9.5 10.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 11.4 11.6 12.2 1.6 74.3 72.5 8.5 9.8 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 89 11 100 8.9 9.5 8.6 0.8 64.7 64.1 7.8 8.7 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 12.0 12.6 12.8 1.9 77.8 75.4 8.5 10.0 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 8.6 9.2 9.9 0.8 63.7 62.9 7.3 8.4 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 89 11 100 7.7 8.0 7.3 0.4 58.1 57.6 6.4 7.5 8.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 11.7 11.9 12.6 1.4 73.4 71.5 8.9 10.1 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------